Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 3

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Observations:
I know we've got Justin Fields ($6,500) and a few pocket passers in good games (such as Tom Brady [$7,800], Matthew Stafford [$7,600], and Justin Herbert [$7,500]), but the true ceiling games still belong to the studs: Lamar Jackson ($8,400), Kyler Murray ($9,000), and Patrick Mahomes ($8,700) -- and Josh Allen ($8,000) and Russell Wilson ($8,400), too.

Only two running backs really profile with slate-altering upside, so saving salary at quarterback really means you're aiming to prioritize elite receivers (or tight ends) or you're possibly simply leading to a suboptimal build.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Observations:
Just Derrick Henry ($9,700) and Dalvin Cook ($9,500) find themselves at salaries greater than $8,000, and their floor/ceiling combinations do suggest they're worth the lofty numbers.

Saquon Barkley ($6,000) is shaping up to be a massive value option whose median outcome puts him in the tier with the $7,000 backs. His floor/ceiling rating stands out behind anyone other than the top two plus Alvin Kamara ($8,000). Kamara easily could go overlooked this week in a poor overall matchup.

There's very little separation between that large second tier of backs behind the top two, so we should ideally be letting game stacks and overall roster construction dictate who we're using.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Observations:
Tyreek Hill ($8,700) is jumping out as the play at receiver in a shootout game against the Los Angeles Chargers, but the salary is a bit tough unless we're locking in Saquon, Fields, or otherwise prioritizing getting to Hill himself rather than Cook and Henry.

As usual, the $7,000 range at receiver is loaded with wideouts who can put up 20 FanDuel points fairly often. Early-season regression candidates DK Metcalf ($7,200), Stefon Diggs ($7,700), A.J. Brown ($6,800) should not be forgotten in Week 3.

Middling salaries really point to Robert Woods ($6,100) and Mike Williams ($6,000), both of whom find themselves in pretty elite game environments for Week 3.

Tight End

Simulation Results

Observations:
It's not Travis Kelce ($8,500) or bust, but he's always a cut above the rest. Darren Waller ($7,400) flashes a similar 75th-percentile upside but a substantially lower floor (though it's expected at a $1,100 salary discount).

The predictable-ish upside for the $6,000 tier does matter this week. If Kelce or Waller drop 20, value options at tight end will assuredly leave us lagging. We can make up for that by hitting on higher-salaried options at other positions, but at a certain point, you can't erase all point gaps. The majority of my tight end pool will consist of those above $5,000.