Monday Night Football Betting: Can the Eagles Soar as Road Underdogs?
They say to throw out the numbers when it comes to divisional matchups -- but here at numberFire we never do that. In fact, let’s go through some numbers to help you make better bets heading into tonight’s Monday Night matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
|Team||nERD||nERD Rank||Off NEP Rank||Def NEP Rank|
Maybe Not the NFC Least
Last season the NFC East was bad. Very bad. While it’s expected that every division has its pushover, last year this entire division didn't really put up much of a fight.
This season is already showing this division has improved -- particularly the two teams matching up tonight.
Dallas nearly knocked off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in the first game of the NFL season, covering the 9.5 point spread. Then, they traveled to Los Angeles and beat the Los Angeles Chargers (who just beat the Chiefs in Kansas City) as three-point road underdogs.
Maybe the arrow is pointing up for the NFC East...except in New York.
Inside the Bets
Our models give a very slight edge to Dallas, as it has them winning outright 57.0% of the time and covering the three-point spread only 43.34% of the time. With odds of -180 on the Dallas moneyline, and -118 for them to cover, the implied probabilities (64.3% and 54.1%, respectively) compared to our model say to move along quickly here.
On the Eagles side, we give them a 47.78% chance to cover, and the remaining percentage believes in a push 8.88% of the time. The best value at FanDuel Sportsbook per our model is to take the Eagles to win outright at +152 odds (39.7% implied odds).
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is known for his running ability, and this season, he’s been doing it effectively. Hurts leads the league (not only quarterbacks) in Rushing Success Rate (min 8 carries) at 73.3%. He also has compiled Rushing NEP of 11.1 in 2021.
Since being named the starting quarterback, Jalen Hurts is averaging 10.3 carries and 69.3 rushing yards over that six-game span. Given his success and frequency of running, Hurts’ total rushing line is 54.5 yards at -110 odds is a good value.
Great is superior to good, however. The alternative rushing line of over 60 yards for Hurts at +124 odds is a great value bet. Only once as a starter has Hurts rushed for less than 60 yards. That was against the Washington Football Team stingy 2020 defense, and it is worth remembering that Hurts infamously did not finish that game.
A Final Note
The Eagles are 3-3 against-the-spread (ATS) in their last six games. Dallas is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests.