NFL Week 4 Power Rankings: There's Nothing to Worry About in Kansas City
Everyone has his or her own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them are computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do.
Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams after three weeks of games.
It's Not Looking Good
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 0-3 | -9.22 | 32 | -2 | 0.8 |
| Jaguars | 0-3 | -8.73 | 31 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Lions | 0-3 | -7.18 | 30 | 2 | 0.9 |
Nobody should be surprised to see any of the New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, or Detroit Lions sitting with 0-3 records through three games, but they have separated themselves from the rest of the league in the negative nERD department. They're the only three squads who would be expected to lose by at least a touchdown on a neutral field against an average opponent.
The Jets do have an early bye in Week 6, but none of these teams have better than a 4.0% chance to make the playoffs.
They Need a Win
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 1-2 | -5.82 | 29 | 0 | 1.6 |
| Bears | 1-2 | -5.63 | 28 | -2 | 1.2 |
| Texans | 1-2 | -4.97 | 27 | -2 | 0.8 |
| Football Team | 1-2 | -4.73 | 26 | -6 | 1.1 |
| Dolphins | 1-2 | -3.63 | 25 | 2 | 1.4 |
| Giants | 0-3 | -3.45 | 24 | 4 | 0.6 |
| Colts | 0-3 | -3.11 | 23 | -1 | 1.4 |
These seven teams have just five wins between them, but it's actually the 0-3 teams who are slightly better by nERD, based on the underlying data.
Among this tier, no squad ranks with an above-average offense, and the only top-16 unit defensively belongs to the Chicago Bears (15th by our metrics).
Notably, the Atlanta Falcons have some winnable games upcoming against the Washington Football Team (in Atlanta) and then home against the lowly Jets. Their expected wins over their next three games could vault them to a 4-2 record if they can handle the Miami Dolphins on the road in Week 7 after Atlanta's bye.
The Not-Quite-Top-Half Teams
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 2-1 | -1.62 | 22 | 2 | 1.6 |
| Eagles | 1-2 | -1.47 | 21 | -5 | 1.0 |
| Steelers | 1-2 | -1.00 | 20 | -2 | 1.2 |
| Raiders | 3-0 | -0.94 | 19 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Patriots | 1-2 | -0.52 | 18 | -1 | 1.4 |
| Bengals | 2-1 | -0.42 | 17 | 6 | 2.0 |
These teams are falling shy of the top 16 in the NFL, but they'd be roughly just one-point underdogs against a team like the Seattle Seahawks at a neutral site. That's not bad.
However, some schedules stiffen up for this tier: the Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Las Vegas Raiders, and New England Patriots are expected to be on the wrong side of the 1-2 or 2-1 battle over their next three games.
That's primarily a problem for the Eagles, who -- on a short week after playing on Monday night -- will have to host the Kansas City Chiefs. They then square up with the Carolina Panthers (3rd in our power rankings) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8th). A 1-5 record could be looming in Philly.
The Raiders themselves are still ranking as a subpar team despite a 3-0 record. They did beat the Baltimore Ravens (11th in our power rankings) but also the Steelers (20th) and the Dolphins (25th). The data says their record is a bit inflated and that they should be playing more like a .500 team than an undefeated squad.
Can They Contend?
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 1-2 | 0.36 | 16 | -6 | 1.2 |
| Packers | 2-1 | 0.91 | 15 | -3 | 1.8 |
| Chiefs | 1-2 | 1.81 | 14 | -8 | 1.5 |
| Chargers | 2-1 | 1.82 | 13 | 2 | 1.6 |
| Vikings | 1-2 | 2.12 | 12 | 2 | 1.7 |
| Ravens | 2-1 | 2.19 | 11 | -3 | 1.6 |
| Browns | 2-1 | 2.90 | 10 | 9 | 1.5 |
| 49ers | 2-1 | 3.00 | 9 | -4 | 1.8 |
The Seahawks themselves are a very interesting case. Lumped in with the elite NFC West after a Week 1 victory, they dropped two straight and will now face the San Francisco 49ers (9th in our power rankings) on the road and Los Angeles Rams (2nd) at home over their next two games.
The Chiefs are sort of reeling in the standings, as much as a team can with a 1-2 record. That record should more likely be 2-1 based on their nERD score, though. And more positively, their 1.5 expected wins over their next three doesn't tell the whole story.
After facing three teams ranked between 10th and 13th by nERD thus far, the Chiefs get the Eagles (21st) on the road, the Buffalo Bills (spoiler: 1st) at home, and then the Washington Football Team (26th) before the Tennessee Titans (22nd) on the road before hosting the New York Giants (24th) in Week 8. It shouldn't surprise us one bit if they rip off four easy wins -- and possibly five if they can stop Josh Allen and Buffalo. The Chiefs' path to a 5-3 or 6-2 record is pretty wide open.
The Top of the Class
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 2-1 | 3.95 | 8 | -5 | 2.0 |
| Cowboys | 2-1 | 4.00 | 7 | 4 | 1.8 |
| Cardinals | 3-0 | 4.15 | 6 | 3 | 1.4 |
| Saints | 2-1 | 4.27 | 5 | 2 | 2.1 |
| Broncos | 3-0 | 5.23 | 4 | 8 | 2.0 |
| Panthers | 3-0 | 6.69 | 3 | 1 | 2.0 |
| Rams | 3-0 | 7.13 | 2 | -1 | 2.1 |
| Bills | 2-1 | 9.08 | 1 | 1 | 2.5 |
The top eight. Ah. A combined 20-4 through three weeks.
Most of these squads -- by nature of their strength relative to other teams -- should keep racking up wins over their next three games.
The most vulnerable team here is the Arizona Cardinals. Their next three matchups are versus the Rams (2nd), at the 49ers (9th), and versus the Cleveland Browns (10th). Those games really could go either way, so it's not time to panic, but they have their work cut out for them in the short term.
As for the top squad, the Bills have a blemished record but have been stellar based on the underlying data. They also face just one top-half team (the Chiefs; 14th) until Week 12 when they travel to play the New Orleans Saints (5th).
