NFL Betting Guide: Week 5
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Over 39.5: 5-Star Rating out of 5
After witnessing last week's ineptitude on the part of the Houston Texans, it's somewhat hard to believe that the Texans have something other than a zero in the win column. They'll try to bounce back in Week 5 and get their second win of the season when they host the New England Patriots in a game that's total portends another scoring desert.
While numberFire certainly doesn't predict a shootout between these 1-3 teams -- both of whom are starting rookie quarterbacks -- we don't predict a slog either, largely due to the fact that both defenses have been subpar. The Pats' and Texans' defenses are 19th and 24th, respectively, in our schedule-adjusted metrics. The Pats are our second-worst team against the run.
The over has hit five of the past six times that home teams are coming off a loss of more than 30 points. The over has hit six of the past nine times when teams that are facing off combined to score fewer than 20 points the previous week.
numberFire has the Patriots and Texans projected to combine for 47.3 points. We give the over a 72.7% chance of hitting. With an expected return of 38.7%, we have the over marked as the only five-star bet on the Week 5 slate.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs Moneyline (-156): 3-Star Rating out of 5
The 3-1 Buffalo Bills and 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs come into this week's Sunday Night Football clash tied for the second-most points per game in the league at 33.5 apiece. The teams combined for 62 points in last year's AFC Championship game. It's thus hardly a surprise that the 56.5-point total in their Week 5 matchup is the highest on the slate. numberFire's model isn't keen on betting the over or the under in this game, however.
The Bills are coming off a masterful 40-0 win over the Houston Texans, who turned the ball over five times and could only muster 109 yards of offense. Despite the Bills' dominance, the AFC East leaders are 3.0-point underdogs this week. Away underdogs who won their previous game by more than 30 points are 2-5 straight up (SU) in the past seven such contests.
Since the start of the 2020 season, away underdogs in games with totals over 55 points that are coming off a win (say that five times fast) have lost five in a row and six of their past seven. The Chiefs have won six in a row and 11 of their past 12 home games when favored and coming off an away win.
Our model gives the Chiefs a 71.2% chance of winning against the Bills and getting to 3-2 on the season. KC's -156 moneyline price implies moneyline odds of 61.0%. With an expected return of $116.85 for every $100 wagered, we mark the Chiefs moneyline as a three-star play.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Over 48.5 (-110): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Without their top two wideouts at Ryan Tannehill's disposal in Week 4, the Tennessee Titans -- still somewhat surprisingly -- fell to the New York Jets. While they couldn't take home the W, their weakened offense still was able to put up a respectable 24 points in the losing effort. With A.J. Brown back in the mix this week, our model has them doing that and then some in what we expect to be a high-scoring affair against the 0-4 Jacksonville Jaguars.
The division-rival Jags and Titans are the worst and sixth-worst defenses, respectively, by our numbers. They've given up 28.8 and 27.8 points per game, respectively, this season. Quarterbacks have a passer rating of 116.8 against the Jags this year -- up significantly from their 105.6 mark last year, which was "good" for the third-worst mark in the league.
The over is 9-5 since the start of last season and 7-3 in the last 10 games when a home team is coming off at least two losses and hosting a team who lost the previous week. There have been at least 50 points scored five of the past eight times the Jaguars were home underdogs of more than three points.
We project the two AFC South teams to combine for 53.2 points this week. We give the over a 62.6% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a three-star play.
