NFL Betting Guide: Week 8

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans

Under 46.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating out of 5

The Los Angeles Rams are massive 15.5-point favorites over the Davis Mills-led Houston Texans in Week 8. We give LA a 74.7% chance of winning. While those odds are good, they may not seem high enough for a game in which you'll have to lay down $1,200 in order to win $100. Instead, our model is keying in on the under as a stronger bet.

Since the start of the 2019 season, there have been four away teams favored by more than 15 points. The under has hit in all four of those contests. Those games have seen no more than 43 points scored with an average of just 39.3. The underdogs in those games have put up a maximum of just 10 points.

In that same time, the Rams have been away favorites 12 times. The under has gone 9-3 in those contests. The under is 5-3 the past eight times Houston has been home underdogs.

We project the Rams and Texans to combine for 43.8 points this week. We give the under a 57.6% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a two-star play.

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions

Lions +3.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Lions Moneyline (+166): 2-Star Rating out of 5

The Philadelphia Eagles come into their Week 8 game against the 0-7 Detroit Lions desperately needing a win. Our model doesn't foresee that as being an easy task, projecting the Eagles to win by just 1.3 points.

Winless home underdogs in Week 8 or later have gone 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past six contests. Away favorites with fewer than three wins in Week 8 or later have failed to cover the spread in six straight and nine out of their past 10. They've gone just 3-7 straight up (SU) in those 10 games.

Since the start of last year, away teams favored by more than three points coming off a loss of more than 10 points are 4-6 ATS. This year, home underdogs of fewer than four points in games with totals higher than 48 are 6-5 ATS.

numberFire's model gives the Lions a 59.0% chance of covering the 3.5-point spread. While we give them only a 45.4% chance of winning, given the +166 moneyline odds, they have an expected return of $120.76 on a $100 bet. We mark both the Lions moneyline and Lions +3.5 as two-star plays.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Under 48.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating out of 5

Coming off a bye week, the Buffalo Bills are looking to move to 5-2 and deepen their stronghold on the AFC East. Our model says that they'll do so handily, though it's keying in on the under as the bet du jour.

The under has hit the past four times that a home favorite in a game with a total higher than 48 points has come off a bye. Since the start of the 2017 season, the under is 8-1 when home teams favored by more than 13 points in Week 8 or later have faced teams who have fewer than two wins. Changing that 13 points to 10-plus results in the under being 14-2 in that timeframe.

We project the divisional rivals to combine for 45.2 points. We give the under a 60.3% chance of hitting. With an expected return of 15.1% on the under, we mark it as a two-star play.