NFL Betting Guide: Week 10

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys

Under 54.5 (-110): 4-Star Rating out of 5

In what was supposed to be a solid return from injury for Dak Prescott, the Dallas Cowboys mustered zero points in the first 55 minutes and 52 seconds of their Week 9 loss to the Denver Broncos. While our model has them bouncing back this week against the Atlanta Falcons to move to 7-2, the under is the bet that's showing the most promise.

Dallas and their opponents have scored fewer than this week's 54.5-point total six of the past seven times that Dallas has come off a loss. As more than 7.0-point away underdogs, the Falcons and their opponents have scored fewer points than this week's total in five of their past six.

The under is 7-3 the last 10 times a team has been favored by more than 7.0 points in a Week-10-or-later game that had a total over 54 points. The under is 5-1 the last six times that the favored team hosted the game.

numberFire's model projects the Falcons and Cowboys to combine for 49.2 points this week. We give the under a 65.8% chance of hitting. With an expected return of $125.58 for every $100 wagered, we mark the under as a three-unit play.

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers -8.5 (-110): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Steelers Moneyline (-360): 2-Star Rating out of 5

The Detroit Lions are winless on the season as they come into Week 10, but the team has been competitive at times. They twice held leads with a second to go, only to have Greg Joseph and Justin Tucker hit 54-yard and 66-yard field goals, respectively, as time expired. The Lions head into Heinz Field Sunday to take on a streaking Pittsburgh Steelers; don't expect a nail-biter like the aforementioned losses to the Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens.

After a solid away win against the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, the Steelers began to unravel, losing their next three. While they haven't looked great since, they've reeled off four consecutive wins to move to 5-3, just a half-game back of the Ravens, who were surprisingly handled by the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night.

In the last 10 seasons, the Steelers have played in 17 home games as a more than 8.0-point favorites. They've gone 17-0 straight up (SU) and 10-7 against the spread (ATS) in those contests. The last time Pittsburgh lost a home game in that situation was a 27-24 defeat to the then Oakland Raiders when they were favored by 14.5. That's their only such loss since the 2003 season.

Winless teams in Week 10 or later who are coming off a bye have lost five of their last six, going 2-4 ATS in that span. The Steelers have won 10 of their last 11 games as home favorites when coming off at least four wins in a row, though they've gone just 5-6 ATS in those contests.

Our model likes the Steelers to win by 10.3 points this week. We give them an 80.7% chance of winning and a 53.2% chance of covering the 8.5 points. We mark the bets as one- and two-star plays, respectively.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team

Under 51.0 (-110): 2-Star Rating out of 5

Two teams with opposite records will face off this week as the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to D.C. to take on the 2-6 Washington Football Team. Our model projects the Bucs to win by more than a tuddy, though it's keying in on the under as the bet to keep an eye on.

In the past 10 seasons, there have been 18 games played in which an away favorite in a game with greater than a 50-point total is facing a team coming off of four losses. The under has gone 11-7 in those contests and 6-3 in the last nine such contests.

The under is 5-2 the last seven times an away favorite in a game with a total greater than 50 has faced a team with two or fewer wins in a Week-10-or-later game. The under is 5-2 the last seven times Washington has been a home 'dog in a game with a total greater than 50. The under is 5-1 the past six times teams coming off bye weeks have faced off. There have been 42 or fewer points six out of the last eight times that has happened.

We project the teams to combine for 47.7 points this week. We give the under a 58.2% chance of hitting and rate the bet as a two-star wager.