Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 13
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP (FDP): A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $8,500 | 22.6 | 2.66 | 16.5 | 29.2 | 40.5% | 1.78 |
| Tom Brady | $8,100 | 22.1 | 2.73 | 16.8 | 27.6 | 36.4% | 2.18 |
| Matthew Stafford | $7,800 | 21.3 | 2.74 | 16.4 | 26.3 | 30.9% | 2.30 |
| Kyler Murray | $8,300 | 20.3 | 2.44 | 14.7 | 25.8 | 28.8% | 1.16 |
| Justin Herbert | $8,200 | 20.2 | 2.46 | 15.2 | 25.1 | 25.5% | 1.19 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,700 | 19.3 | 2.50 | 14.0 | 24.4 | 22.1% | 1.28 |
| Derek Carr | $7,500 | 19.3 | 2.57 | 14.4 | 24.1 | 22.1% | 1.50 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,500 | 18.5 | 2.47 | 13.3 | 23.6 | 19.6% | 1.25 |
| Joe Burrow | $7,400 | 18.1 | 2.45 | 13.0 | 24.1 | 21.3% | 1.19 |
| Taylor Heinicke | $7,100 | 17.9 | 2.52 | 12.9 | 23.2 | 20.2% | 1.26 |
| Gardner Minshew | $6,100 | 17.1 | 2.81 | 12.2 | 21.9 | 13.6% | 2.06 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $6,900 | 16.9 | 2.45 | 12.3 | 22.2 | 14.6% | 1.21 |
| Russell Wilson | $7,300 | 16.0 | 2.20 | 11.3 | 20.5 | 11.1% | 0.65 |
| Tyrod Taylor | $7,000 | 15.3 | 2.19 | 10.1 | 19.9 | 8.2% | 0.64 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $6,600 | 15.0 | 2.27 | 9.8 | 20.1 | 8.5% | 0.86 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | $6,500 | 14.9 | 2.29 | 10.0 | 19.5 | 7.1% | 0.85 |
| Matt Ryan | $6,800 | 14.6 | 2.14 | 9.9 | 19.3 | 8.2% | 0.65 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $6,700 | 14.6 | 2.17 | 9.6 | 19.5 | 8.2% | 0.68 |
| Zach Wilson | $6,300 | 14.5 | 2.30 | 9.8 | 19.5 | 8.0% | 0.90 |
| Jared Goff | $6,400 | 14.1 | 2.21 | 9.5 | 18.7 | 6.7% | 0.72 |
| Andy Dalton | $6,600 | 12.7 | 1.92 | 8.2 | 17.5 | 4.2% | 0.41 |
| Mike Glennon | $6,100 | 12.4 | 2.03 | 8.3 | 16.7 | 2.8% | 0.51 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | $10,500 | 22.5 | 2.14 | 16.3 | 28.7 | 60.1% | 2.41 |
| Alexander Mattison | $8,700 | 17.1 | 1.97 | 11.7 | 22.5 | 35.8% | 1.58 |
| Joe Mixon | $9,400 | 16.7 | 1.78 | 11.5 | 22.6 | 35.7% | 1.15 |
| Austin Ekeler | $9,000 | 16.7 | 1.85 | 10.8 | 22.1 | 33.0% | 1.23 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,700 | 16.6 | 2.15 | 11.2 | 22.1 | 33.8% | 2.14 |
| James Conner | $7,300 | 15.7 | 2.15 | 10.8 | 21.3 | 29.8% | 2.13 |
| Elijah Mitchell | $7,600 | 15.6 | 2.06 | 9.9 | 21.2 | 29.1% | 1.64 |
| Sony Michel | $5,300 | 15.6 | 2.94 | 10.9 | 21.0 | 28.7% | 5.16 |
| Antonio Gibson | $6,200 | 15.5 | 2.50 | 10.1 | 20.7 | 27.4% | 3.22 |
| Najee Harris | $8,000 | 15.2 | 1.90 | 9.8 | 20.5 | 28.5% | 1.34 |
| Jamaal Williams | $6,500 | 14.5 | 2.23 | 9.0 | 20.1 | 25.3% | 2.12 |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,000 | 13.8 | 1.97 | 9.5 | 18.6 | 19.1% | 1.59 |
| David Montgomery | $6,500 | 13.6 | 2.09 | 9.0 | 18.9 | 20.3% | 1.88 |
| Saquon Barkley | $7,200 | 13.2 | 1.84 | 8.3 | 18.2 | 19.8% | 1.14 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $7,400 | 13.1 | 1.77 | 8.1 | 18.7 | 20.7% | 1.08 |
| James Robinson | $7,100 | 12.7 | 1.79 | 7.8 | 17.6 | 15.7% | 1.08 |
| Myles Gaskin | $6,400 | 12.6 | 1.97 | 7.9 | 17.5 | 16.5% | 1.47 |
| Rex Burkhead | $5,300 | 11.6 | 2.19 | 6.5 | 16.6 | 13.9% | 1.72 |
| Miles Sanders | $6,600 | 11.1 | 1.68 | 6.4 | 15.8 | 9.1% | 0.91 |
| Devonta Freeman | $6,100 | 10.6 | 1.73 | 5.6 | 14.9 | 7.8% | 0.96 |
| Boston Scott | $6,600 | 9.3 | 1.40 | 4.6 | 13.8 | 4.8% | 0.52 |
| Tevin Coleman | $5,800 | 9.1 | 1.56 | 4.4 | 13.5 | 4.9% | 0.74 |
| Darrell Henderson* | $7,500 | 8.9 | 1.19 | 4.6 | 13.4 | 5.0% | 0.28 |
| Kenyan Drake | $5,400 | 7.3 | 1.35 | 3.1 | 11.3 | 1.9% | 0.49 |
| Ty Johnson | $5,300 | 7.0 | 1.32 | 2.9 | 11.3 | 1.7% | 0.50 |
| Jeff Wilson | $5,300 | 6.4 | 1.20 | 2.4 | 10.2 | 1.5% | 0.38 |
| Nyheim Hines | $5,300 | 5.4 | 1.02 | 1.3 | 9.1 | 0.2% | 0.27 |
| Mike Davis | $5,600 | 4.8 | 0.85 | 1.4 | 8.8 | 0.3% | 0.21 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,900 | 4.6 | 0.78 | 0.9 | 8.4 | 0.5% | 0.13 |
| Kene Nwangwu | $5,300 | 4.5 | 0.85 | 1.0 | 8.9 | 0.4% | 0.22 |
| Ronald Jones | $5,300 | 4.5 | 0.84 | 0.6 | 8.5 | 0.4% | 0.21 |
| Alex Collins | $5,800 | 4.2 | 0.72 | 0.5 | 7.7 | 0.3% | 0.11 |
| Samaje Perine | $5,000 | 3.9 | 0.79 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 0.3% | 0.20 |
| Devontae Booker | $6,000 | 3.9 | 0.66 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 0.2% | 0.08 |
| DeeJay Dallas | $5,500 | 3.9 | 0.72 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 0.1% | 0.12 |
| Jermar Jefferson | $5,500 | 3.9 | 0.71 | 0.5 | 7.6 | 0.2% | 0.14 |
| Salvon Ahmed | $5,100 | 3.8 | 0.75 | 0.4 | 7.5 | 0.0% | 0.14 |
| Royce Freeman | $4,600 | 3.8 | 0.82 | 0.4 | 7.9 | 0.3% | 0.27 |
| Khalil Herbert | $5,100 | 3.5 | 0.69 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 0.1% | 0.14 |
| Eno Benjamin | $5,000 | 3.5 | 0.70 | 0.1 | 7.2 | 0.1% | 0.14 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | $5,200 | 3.4 | 0.66 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | $4,600 | 3.3 | 0.72 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 0.1% | 0.21 |
| Duke Johnson | $4,500 | 3.1 | 0.70 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 0.1% | 0.19 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | $4,900 | 3.1 | 0.63 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 0.0% | 0.13 |
| Wayne Gallman | $5,000 | 3.0 | 0.61 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 0.0% | 0.11 |
| Jaret Patterson | $5,400 | 3.0 | 0.55 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 0.3% | 0.11 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom /Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | $9,000 | 19.0 | 2.11 | 14.3 | 23.2 | 44.8% | 2.71 |
| Justin Jefferson | $8,000 | 15.3 | 1.92 | 10.4 | 20.3 | 26.0% | 1.46 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,600 | 14.7 | 1.93 | 10.2 | 18.8 | 20.2% | 1.53 |
| Keenan Allen | $7,300 | 14.3 | 1.96 | 10.1 | 18.6 | 19.1% | 1.62 |
| Mike Evans | $7,400 | 13.5 | 1.83 | 8.7 | 18.3 | 17.8% | 1.21 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,600 | 13.3 | 1.76 | 8.8 | 17.8 | 16.0% | 0.97 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | $7,500 | 13.1 | 1.75 | 8.4 | 18.1 | 18.4% | 1.05 |
| Diontae Johnson | $7,200 | 12.7 | 1.77 | 8.0 | 17.1 | 14.3% | 1.03 |
| Marquise Brown | $7,100 | 12.6 | 1.78 | 7.6 | 17.3 | 15.1% | 0.98 |
| Terry McLaurin | $7,200 | 12.2 | 1.70 | 7.4 | 16.5 | 10.6% | 0.85 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,900 | 12.1 | 1.75 | 7.5 | 16.2 | 9.6% | 0.95 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $6,400 | 12.0 | 1.88 | 8.4 | 15.4 | 5.8% | 1.39 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $6,800 | 11.9 | 1.75 | 7.3 | 16.0 | 8.3% | 0.98 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $7,000 | 11.8 | 1.69 | 8.1 | 15.8 | 9.1% | 0.91 |
| Tee Higgins | $6,600 | 11.7 | 1.78 | 7.3 | 16.0 | 8.5% | 1.11 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $6,900 | 11.3 | 1.64 | 8.0 | 14.8 | 5.8% | 0.75 |
| Elijah Moore | $6,100 | 11.0 | 1.81 | 6.1 | 16.0 | 10.0% | 1.09 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,700 | 10.9 | 1.63 | 6.2 | 15.4 | 8.2% | 0.76 |
| D.K. Metcalf | $7,300 | 10.8 | 1.48 | 6.6 | 15.1 | 7.3% | 0.54 |
| Odell Beckham | $6,000 | 10.7 | 1.78 | 5.8 | 16.0 | 11.5% | 1.07 |
| DeVonta Smith | $6,300 | 10.7 | 1.70 | 5.7 | 14.8 | 7.4% | 0.88 |
| Darnell Mooney | $6,700 | 10.5 | 1.57 | 6.0 | 15.0 | 7.3% | 0.71 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $7,200 | 10.2 | 1.42 | 6.1 | 13.9 | 3.1% | 0.44 |
| Van Jefferson | $5,800 | 10.2 | 1.76 | 6.3 | 14.5 | 6.5% | 1.01 |
| Mike Williams | $6,500 | 10.1 | 1.55 | 5.5 | 14.6 | 6.9% | 0.68 |
| Chase Claypool | $6,500 | 9.9 | 1.53 | 5.4 | 14.6 | 6.5% | 0.67 |
| DeVante Parker | $5,400 | 9.1 | 1.69 | 5.1 | 13.3 | 3.4% | 0.89 |
| Russell Gage | $5,900 | 9.0 | 1.53 | 5.4 | 12.3 | 2.5% | 0.59 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,600 | 8.6 | 1.54 | 4.5 | 12.9 | 2.5% | 0.68 |
| Kenny Golladay | $5,800 | 8.6 | 1.48 | 4.3 | 12.7 | 3.7% | 0.61 |
| Laviska Shenault | $5,400 | 8.5 | 1.58 | 5.3 | 11.8 | 0.7% | 0.68 |
| Christian Kirk | $6,200 | 8.1 | 1.30 | 4.3 | 11.7 | 1.4% | 0.35 |
| Jamison Crowder | $5,500 | 7.7 | 1.41 | 4.4 | 10.7 | 0.9% | 0.43 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $5,400 | 7.6 | 1.41 | 4.1 | 10.8 | 0.6% | 0.46 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,700 | 7.6 | 1.33 | 4.1 | 10.7 | 0.9% | 0.34 |
| Rashod Bateman | $5,500 | 7.0 | 1.27 | 3.7 | 10.6 | 0.3% | 0.39 |
| Kalif Raymond | $5,200 | 7.0 | 1.34 | 3.3 | 10.7 | 0.7% | 0.49 |
| Josh Reynolds | $5,100 | 6.9 | 1.36 | 3.2 | 10.8 | 1.2% | 0.53 |
| DeSean Jackson | $5,200 | 6.9 | 1.33 | 3.7 | 10.2 | 0.2% | 0.40 |
| A.J. Green | $5,600 | 6.8 | 1.21 | 3.1 | 10.1 | 0.6% | 0.32 |
| Jakeem Grant | $4,800 | 6.8 | 1.41 | 3.2 | 9.6 | 0.5% | 0.46 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $5,700 | 6.6 | 1.16 | 3.0 | 10.1 | 0.2% | 0.26 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | $5,200 | 6.5 | 1.26 | 3.0 | 10.3 | 0.2% | 0.41 |
| Darius Slayton | $5,300 | 6.2 | 1.18 | 2.3 | 10.5 | 1.3% | 0.40 |
| Quez Watkins | $5,300 | 6.2 | 1.17 | 3.1 | 9.6 | 0.4% | 0.30 |
| Zach Pascal | $5,100 | 6.1 | 1.20 | 2.6 | 9.5 | 0.0% | 0.35 |
| Rondale Moore | $5,500 | 6.0 | 1.09 | 3.3 | 8.6 | 0.0% | 0.13 |
| Jauan Jennings | $5,300 | 6.0 | 1.12 | 2.9 | 8.8 | 0.3% | 0.22 |
| Bryan Edwards | $5,100 | 5.8 | 1.13 | 2.7 | 9.3 | 0.4% | 0.31 |
| DeAndre Carter | $5,400 | 5.7 | 1.06 | 3.0 | 8.4 | 0.0% | 0.13 |
| Laquon Treadwell | $4,900 | 5.4 | 1.10 | 2.6 | 8.5 | 0.0% | 0.25 |
| Zay Jones | $5,300 | 5.3 | 1.00 | 2.7 | 7.9 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,000 | 5.0 | 1.01 | 2.3 | 7.9 | 0.0% | 0.16 |
| Damiere Byrd | $5,000 | 5.0 | 1.00 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 0.2% | 0.21 |
| K.J. Osborn | $5,000 | 4.7 | 0.95 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| Nico Collins | $5,200 | 4.7 | 0.90 | 1.6 | 8.3 | 0.1% | 0.19 |
| Jalen Reagor | $5,100 | 4.6 | 0.91 | 1.5 | 7.8 | 0.0% | 0.17 |
| Sammy Watkins | $5,500 | 4.0 | 0.73 | 0.9 | 6.8 | 0.0% | 0.06 |
| John Ross | $5,100 | 4.0 | 0.78 | 1.3 | 6.7 | 0.0% | 0.09 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | $7,000 | 11.7 | 1.67 | 6.8 | 16.5 | 32.5% | 0.84 |
| George Kittle | $6,300 | 11.2 | 1.78 | 7.1 | 14.8 | 23.8% | 1.01 |
| Mark Andrews | $7,300 | 10.6 | 1.45 | 6.2 | 15.3 | 26.4% | 0.53 |
| Kyle Pitts | $6,200 | 10.0 | 1.62 | 5.3 | 14.7 | 24.1% | 0.79 |
| Dallas Goedert | $5,800 | 9.8 | 1.69 | 5.8 | 13.6 | 18.6% | 0.88 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,100 | 9.6 | 1.57 | 5.5 | 13.5 | 17.3% | 0.67 |
| Foster Moreau | $5,000 | 9.2 | 1.84 | 5.4 | 12.9 | 14.7% | 1.23 |
| Mike Gesicki | $6,000 | 7.9 | 1.32 | 3.8 | 12.3 | 13.4% | 0.47 |
| Logan Thomas | $5,600 | 7.9 | 1.41 | 4.0 | 11.2 | 9.4% | 0.46 |
| Tyler Higbee | $5,300 | 7.6 | 1.44 | 4.2 | 11.2 | 8.6% | 0.57 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $5,400 | 7.3 | 1.35 | 4.0 | 10.3 | 5.1% | 0.39 |
| Cole Kmet | $5,300 | 7.2 | 1.36 | 3.2 | 10.7 | 7.2% | 0.46 |
| Zach Ertz | $5,500 | 6.8 | 1.24 | 3.2 | 10.7 | 6.6% | 0.39 |
| Gerald Everett | $4,900 | 6.5 | 1.32 | 3.2 | 9.3 | 3.0% | 0.38 |
| Tyler Conklin | $5,200 | 6.3 | 1.21 | 3.3 | 9.7 | 3.7% | 0.33 |
| Jared Cook | $5,100 | 6.3 | 1.23 | 2.6 | 10.2 | 5.2% | 0.41 |
| Evan Engram | $5,200 | 6.1 | 1.18 | 2.6 | 9.7 | 4.6% | 0.33 |
| Jack Doyle | $5,000 | 5.5 | 1.09 | 2.4 | 8.8 | 1.9% | 0.28 |
| C.J. Uzomah | $5,200 | 5.5 | 1.05 | 2.7 | 8.5 | 1.9% | 0.20 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | $4,500 | 5.0 | 1.12 | 2.1 | 8.3 | 1.8% | 0.33 |
| Ryan Griffin | $4,700 | 4.3 | 0.92 | 1.6 | 7.2 | 0.5% | 0.15 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | $4,600 | 3.9 | 0.84 | 0.8 | 6.5 | 0.4% | 0.12 |
| Pharaoh Brown | $4,200 | 3.8 | 0.91 | 1.0 | 6.8 | 0.3% | 0.20 |
| Brevin Jordan | $4,900 | 3.8 | 0.77 | 0.9 | 6.7 | 0.5% | 0.11 |
| Donald Parham | $4,600 | 3.6 | 0.78 | 0.5 | 6.4 | 0.2% | 0.11 |
| Hayden Hurst | $4,400 | 3.5 | 0.81 | 0.5 | 6.6 | 0.6% | 0.17 |
| Jordan Akins | $4,500 | 3.3 | 0.73 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 0.1% | 0.13 |
| Jimmy Graham | $4,700 | 3.1 | 0.65 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 0.5% | 0.11 |
| Cameron Brate | $4,800 | 3.0 | 0.62 | 0.0 | 6.2 | 0.2% | 0.09 |
