NFL Week 14 Power Rankings: Are the Chiefs Championship Contenders Again?
Everyone has his or her own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them are computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do just that.
Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams after 13 weeks.
numberFire's NFL Power Rankings
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 10-2 | 11.48 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | 2.4 |
| Buccaneers | 9-3 | 10.24 | 2 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.2 |
| Bills | 7-5 | 10.18 | 3 | -1 | 85.0% | 1.9 |
| Cowboys | 8-4 | 8.13 | 4 | 0 | 99.5% | 2.6 |
| Patriots | 9-4 | 7.99 | 5 | 0 | 98.9% | 2.0 |
| Packers | 9-3 | 5.74 | 6 | 0 | 100.0% | 2.4 |
| Rams | 8-4 | 5.60 | 7 | 1 | 94.8% | 1.7 |
| 49ers | 6-6 | 4.06 | 8 | -1 | 70.7% | 2.0 |
| Chiefs | 8-4 | 3.70 | 9 | 0 | 95.8% | 2.0 |
| Chargers | 7-5 | 3.27 | 10 | 2 | 83.2% | 2.2 |
| Colts | 7-6 | 3.13 | 11 | 2 | 57.3% | 1.3 |
| Saints | 5-7 | 2.79 | 12 | -2 | 34.1% | 1.8 |
| Eagles | 6-7 | 1.59 | 13 | 1 | 49.1% | 2.1 |
| Vikings | 5-7 | 1.31 | 14 | -3 | 26.0% | 1.8 |
| Bengals | 7-5 | 0.94 | 15 | 0 | 42.7% | 1.5 |
| Titans | 8-4 | 0.71 | 16 | 0 | 98.0% | 1.9 |
| Broncos | 6-6 | -0.32 | 17 | 0 | 15.6% | 1.9 |
| Ravens | 8-4 | -0.78 | 18 | 0 | 89.0% | 1.2 |
| Raiders | 6-6 | -2.28 | 19 | 0 | 9.0% | 1.2 |
| Browns | 6-6 | -2.32 | 20 | 0 | 11.3% | 1.2 |
| Seahawks | 4-8 | -2.43 | 21 | 3 | 0.8% | 1.6 |
| Dolphins | 6-7 | -3.07 | 22 | -1 | 3.0% | 1.4 |
| Panthers | 5-7 | -3.14 | 23 | -2 | 1.7% | 0.9 |
| Steelers | 6-5 | -3.24 | 24 | -1 | 11.1% | 1.0 |
| Football Team | 6-6 | -4.34 | 25 | 0 | 19.9% | 0.5 |
| Giants | 4-8 | -4.76 | 26 | 0 | 1.3% | 0.6 |
| Bears | 4-8 | -5.59 | 27 | 0 | 0.6% | 0.8 |
| Falcons | 5-7 | -8.74 | 28 | 0 | 1.4% | 1.0 |
| Jets | 3-9 | -10.57 | 29 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.9 |
| Jaguars | 2-10 | -10.63 | 30 | -1 | 0.0% | 1.2 |
| Lions | 1-10 | -12.46 | 31 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.5 |
| Texans | 2-10 | -13.09 | 32 | -1 | 0.0% | 0.7 |
There isn't much shakeup at the top, and none of the top nine teams shifted more than a single spot in our power rankings. The top of the top are separating from the rest of the field.
The anticipated Monday night matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots went the Patriots' way. The result was a drop in nERD of 0.87 points for the Bills and a gain of 1.00 for the Patriots. The Bills' playoff odds are 85.0% after dipping 11.0 points. The Patriots' odds have now jumped to 98.9% after bottoming out at 8.7% back in Week 6. Their division odds virtually doubled with the victory (72.6% from 36.7%). They play again in Week 16.
One team to note is the Kansas City Chiefs. They continue to take care of business in relatively ugly (or at least un-Chiefs) ways. They're now 8-4 after a fifth straight win. Their Super Bowl odds are now 15.0% -- second-best in the NFL. Their offense ranks 8th overall by numberFire's adjusted metrics, and their defense is 19th. Only one of their final five opponents is better than 15th in nERD (the Los Angeles Chargers are 10th).
The largest playoff odds increases of the week belong to the Chargers (30.9 points to 83.2%) the Philadelphia Eagles (23.5 points to 49.1%), and the Indianapolis Colts (18.0 points to 57.3%).
The largest playoff odds decreases of the week belong, unfortunately, to the Minnesota Vikings (20.0 points to 26.0%), the Cincinnati Bengals (20.0 points to 42.7%), and the Las Vegas Raiders (14.2 points to 9.0%).
