Monday Night Football Betting: The Sean McVay-Kliff Kingsbury War Sees Another Chapter
We have a huge game in the NFC West with the conference leading Arizona Cardinals hosting the Los Angeles Rams. L.A. sits two games back of the Cardinals in the West, so a loss tonight would more or less put the division out of reach.
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
| Team | nERD | nERD Rank | Off NEP Rank | Def NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 11.48 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5.6 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
Inside the Standard Bets
Our model favors Arizona, having them winning outright 62.9% of the time and covering the 2-point spread 58.04% of the time. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Cardinals' moneyline odds are -130. Comparing that implied probability of 56.52% to our model’s win probability we have some value in this bet as a two-star wager.
The Cardinals’ odds to cover their spread are set at -114 (53.27%) and with our model giving Arizona a 58.04% chance to cover. we have that bet rated as another one-star bet.
The best value among the standard set of wagers, per our model, is taking under on a 51 point total line. It’s rated a two-star bet; our model estimates the likelihood of the under hitting is 61.41%, but it can be found at -110 odds (52.38% implied).
Player Prop Value Bets
As another Rams' primetime game occurs, I’m once again taking the over on Cooper Kupp’s receiving prop -- set at 93.5 yards (-110).
In Week 4, Kupp was held in check by Arizona, compiling a season-low 64 receiving yards, but he still had 13 targets. That was one of just two occasions this season he hasn’t had at least 95 receiving yards.
numberFire’s player projection model forecasts the over here as well with 100.48 receiving yards as a median.
Kyler Murray returned from injury last week and reminded the league how dangerous he is – passing for two touchdowns and rushing for two more against the Chicago Bears. The Rams have done a good job of limiting opposing quarterbacks on the ground; they have allowed the 7th fewest rushing yards per game this season.
However, the Rams have allowed four quarterbacks to each score a touchdown with their legs this season, which is the second-highest per-game mark in the NFL. Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Ryan Tannehill each tallied one score.
Murray has rushed for a TD in four of his nine games this year, and over his career, he has scored in 41.46% of his starts. With his scoring odds set at +250, I like the value here.
Final Notes
-- Arizona is 9-3 against-the-spread (ATS) this season but only 2-3 at home. With both Hopkins and Murray in the lineup, they are 7-2 ATS overall and 2-2 ATS at home.
-- The Cardinals notched their first win over the Rams with Kyler at quarterback earlier this season. They were 0-4 straight up before that.
-- The Rams are 5-7 ATS overall this season and 3-3 ATS on the road.
-- In divisional rematches past Week 11 since 2005, the "under" has hit 61% of the time.
-- 55% of the tickets and 70% of the money tonight at FanDuel Sportsbook is on the Cardinals to cover 2.5 points.
