3 Fantasy Football Defensive Streaming Options for Week 16
I'm one of the 10 or so weirdos on the planet who has a passion for D/STs. In truth, it's a difficult passion to explain to people. Fantasy football is already a niche within a niche, and defensive streaming adds a couple of layers of obscure on top of that. Indeed, even a certain chunk of the fantasy football community is vehemently opposed to defensive streaming.
Whether you share my passion for the D/ST position, or you're gritting your teeth and bearing with your league's decision to keep the spot in spite of your repeated requests to the contrary, I'm here to help.
A few housekeeping matters: lines are courtesy of NFL odds, and roster percentages and scores are from the Yahoo! fantasy platform. Assume that the listed order is the preferred order. I'll try for defenses on 40% or fewer of Yahoo rosters.
Seattle Seahawks
vs. Chicago Bears
Spread: Seahawks -7.0
Roster Percentage: 35%
The Seattle Seahawks face Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears in Week 16. Despite his recent uptick in play, Fields' high sack rate (11.8%) and interception rate (3.7%) keep any defense facing him a firm streamer option.
The Seahawks have had a difficult year but still find themselves favored by a touchdown. While Seattle's defense is subpar, it isn't quite the trainwreck many expect at just a slightly below average 0.09 Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) allowed per play.
The Seahawks, according to our model, project as the third-best D/ST play this week.
Atlanta Falcons
vs. Detroit Lions
Spread: Falcons -6.0
Roster Percentage: 4%
Fresh off their gargantuan upset of the Arizona Cardinals, the Detroit Lions remain nearly touchdown underdogs in Week 16.
Believe the Lions hype at your own discretion, but the Atlanta Falcons are a viable play this week. The Lions have an implied point total of just 18.0 points this week, and you're better off trusting the year-long sample as opposed to the most recent week.
We project Atlanta as a solid play this week, ranking just outside the top 10.
New York Jets
vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Jets -2.5
Roster Percentage: 2%
In a pick-your-poison matchup, the New York Jets face the Jacksonville Jaguars. I'm leaning toward the home Jets this week, but either team is semi-viable in a matchup where we're trying to guess which bad team will play worse.
The Jets and Jaguars are 32nd and 30th, respectively, in Defensive NEP, so it's not like we're dealing with a secretly good defense on either side.
It's also different flavors of bad at quarterback. Zach Wilson sits at -0.16 Passing NEP per drop back while Trevor Lawrence fares slightly better at -0.06 Passing NEP per drop back.
Both are decent streaming plays for Week 16.
