Sunday Night Football Betting: Where Is the Betting Value in the Dallas-Washington Clash?
The Cowboys are hefty favorites in this one, sitting as 9.0-point favorites, per NFL odds. The total is set at 46.5 points.
Our nERD-based rankings show that this game could be a blowout, just as the line indicates. The Cowboys are ranked 4th while Washington clocks in 23rd.
Let's dive into some interesting betting angles for this contest.
Breaking It Down
The Cowboys have enjoyed a nice run of late, although the efficiency metrics don't support a strong season so far from signal-caller Dak Prescott. Using our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, Prescott has recorded a Passing NEP per drop back of 0.17, which is slightly above the league average. Prescott has tossed for nearly 3,700 yards and 25 touchdowns this season.
Taylor Heinicke is back under center for WFT. He's been so-so this year, logging a clip of 0.05 Passing NEP per pass drop back while tossing 19 touchdown passes. Interceptions (12) and sacks (28) have really hurt Heinicke.
As for the running backs, this is an interesting situation to watch for the Cowboys. They have employed a two-headed monster in the backfield, and Tony Pollard has been the far more efficient runner (0.17 Rushing NEP per rush) compared to Ezekiel Elliott (0.04 Rushing NEP per rush). The two have combined for more than 1,500 yards.
It looks like Antonio Gibson is going to try to suit up. He's a game-time decision due to a toe injury, and it'll be a big boost to the offense if he can play. On the season, Gibson has rushed 231 times for just under 900 yards.
Defensively, this is no contest. The Cowboys rank as the league's third-best unit, per our metrics, and Washington sits seventh-worst.
Bets to Consider
The Cowboys are 9.0-point favorites, and the total sits at 46.5 points. Where should you have your money for this one, according to our numbers?
Our projections fall in line with what oddsmakers are expecting. We side with the Cowboys and project them to win this game 76.9% of the time. From a score perspective, we are projecting a 28.63-19.95 final, which makes the current spread basically a toss-up. We give Washington a 52.55% chance to cover.
With the total, our algorithm projects the over to win out 56.44% of the time, but there's some history behind this -- more on that shortly -- that doesn't make this a lock.
One player prop I like and our projections agree with is Elliott's rushing yards prop, which is set at 52.5 yards (-110). We project him for 57.9 rushing yards, but let me make the case for why I'm more into the over than our model is.
The positive game script here should favor a run-heavy attack for the Cowboys, and WFT has been gashed on the ground. Miles Sanders annihilated them last week for 131 yards on 18 carries. While Pollard looms in the backfield to steal some touches, Zeke still tallied 19 touches last time out. Expect him to salt this victory away on the ground.
Historical Betting Trends
-- Backing Washington has been a pretty smart bet of late. Against the spread (ATS), they are 4-1-1 in their last six games.
-- If you like that, the Cowboys would like you to hold their beer. They are 11-3 ATS in their last 14.
-- Interestingly, points have been a hot commodity in this series. The under has hit 12 of the last 14 games.