3 NFL Player Props for Wild Card Saturday
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Joe Burrow Over 33.5 Passing Attempts (-114)
Joe Burrow's passing attempt prop is sitting at 33.5 and the over is the bet to make.
When we look at the Bengals' offense overall this season, they passed the ball 57.99% of the time, which was 19th in the league. They were below the league average in their pass play percentage for the season overall, but if we look at the last three games that Burrow played -- he sat out in Week 18 -- the Bengals had a pass play percentage of 64.13%, which was the fourth-highest in the league.
A clear increase in passing plays is reflected in Burrow's attempts to end the season, where he averaged 35 attempts in his final three games, and 36 attempts in his final five games. When push comes to shove for the Bengals' offense, they let Burrow air the ball out to their elite receivers, leading to the over on his passing attempts this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
The New England Patriots love the running game.
This is nothing new for the Patriots this season, and this points us to the over on Rhamondre Stevenson's rushing yards prop, which is only 41.5 yards. Stevenson only played in 12 games this season, and while he didn't see a whole lot of action in the first few games, things picked up once November rolled around. In his final eight games, Stevenson went over 41.5 rushing yards six times -- including one against the Buffalo Bills.
The Patriots have lead running back Damien Harris listed as questionable for this game, but he is expected to play. If at any point Harris isn't able to stay fully healthy in the game, Stevenson would take over the rushing work for the Patriots.
Stevenson has the second-most rushing attempts and the second-most red zone rushing attempts for the Patriots, showing he is a trusted option in their offense.
Mac Jones Under 30.5 Passing Attempts (-102)
As noted above, the Patriots love to run the ball, with passing being the secondary option.
We all remember the game the Patriots won at Buffalo earlier in the year that was severely impacted by weather. In that game, Mac Jones had a total of three passing attempts. While we won't see the same amount of wind on Saturday night as we did in that game, it's more of an indication of what we should expect from the Patriots' offense.
Jones averaged 30.6 passing attempts per game this season, and even if we remove the one game where he had only 3 attempts, it would be an average of 32 passing attempts in the other 16 games.
Jones isn't blowing past this total often, and with the over 30.5 attempts sitting at -130 juice, I'll take the near-even money and side with the under on a quarterback who doesn't have high passing volume.