AJ Brown Traded: The Fantasy Football Impact on the Eagles and Titans
In a first round full of draft trades, one that stands out above most is the deal between the Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles that sent star wide receiver AJ Brown to the Eagles in exchange for picks 18 and 101.
The Titans used the 18th pick to select Arkansas Razorbacks receiver Treylon Burks.
Here's how I project the two offenses in 2022 as a result.
Philadelphia Eagles 2022 Fantasy Football Projections
Player | Pass Comp |
Pass Att |
Pass Yds |
Pass TD |
Pass INT |
Rush Att |
Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
PPR | Pos Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jalen Hurts | 333 | 528 | 3855 | 23.6 | 12.3 | 135 | 638 | 7.6 | 333.6 | QB6 |
Player | Rush Att |
Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec Tgt |
Rec Rec |
Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
PPR | Pos Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miles Sanders | 221 | 984 | 5.4 | 46 | 31 | 201 | 1.1 | 188.6 | RB26 |
Kenneth Gainwell | 83 | 299 | 1.6 | 35 | 24 | 184 | 1.0 | 88.0 | RB53 |
Boston Scott | 66 | 258 | 1.4 | 15 | 10 | 71 | 0.6 | 54.7 | RB65 |
Dallas Goedert | 91 | 61 | 682 | 4.5 | 156.5 | TE8 | |||
A.J. Brown | 111 | 70 | 969 | 5.6 | 200.3 | WR33 | |||
DeVonta Smith | 96 | 58 | 747 | 4.3 | 158.1 | WR54 | |||
Zach Pascal | 35 | 21 | 234 | 1.2 | 51.5 | WR103 | |||
Quez Watkins | 25 | 15 | 188 | 0.9 | 38.9 | WR112 | |||
Jalen Reagor | 11 | 66 | 0.4 | 15 | 19 | 194 | 0.9 | 52.4 | WR101 |
Quick Takes: I bumped up the Eagles' expected pass rate a few percentage points, and while they still rank 26th in that department, it did help out with the projections for Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.
Perhaps a WR20 ranking for Brown seems low, but it's still largely tied into the passing volume projection -- and touchdown totals. Market-share-wise, I have Brown projected for a 22% target share with Smith at 19% and Goedert at 18%. Basically a solid trio but with a little too few targets to make the most of near-20% shares for true fantasy football eliteness.
This move profiles as a better on-field move than it does for fantasy purposes.
As for Jalen Hurts, he's rating as the QB6 but not by much. He has true overall QB1 upside with his weapons and rushing potential.
Tennessee Titans 2022 Fantasy Football Projections
Player | Pass Comp |
Pass Att |
Pass Yds |
Pass TD |
Pass INT |
Rush Att |
Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
PPR | Pos Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ryan Tannehill | 333 | 501 | 3661 | 21.5 | 12 | 61 | 292 | 2.1 | 250.4 | QB20 |
Player | Rush Att |
Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec Tgt |
Rec Rec |
Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
PPR | Pos Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Henry | 358 | 1534 | 11.2 | 37 | 25 | 204 | 1 | 272.1 | RB7 |
Dontrell Hilliard | 83 | 440 | 3.2 | 53 | 34 | 287 | 1.4 | 134.5 | RB41 |
Austin Hooper | 63 | 42 | 456 | 3.1 | 106.4 | TE24 | |||
Treylon Burks | 116 | 75 | 969 | 5.3 | 203.9 | WR32 | |||
Robert Woods | 6 | 29 | 0.2 | 100 | 68 | 741 | 4 | 169.8 | WR50 |
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 79 | 49 | 633 | 3.4 | 132 | WR66 |
Quick Take: Losing AJ Brown led to bumping down Ryan Tannehill's efficiency numbers, which lowered his touchdown rate and increased his interception rate for my projections. He's the QB20, and it's hard to see how he can push for QB1 status in fantasy this season.
Derrick Henry is slated for another big workload no matter what and is my RB7 in PPR formats at the moment.
Usually, when penciling in rookie receivers, it's the first-rounders who get up toward 20% territory in target share. The others rarely crack that mark with an initial projection. However, removing Brown (who I had projected for around 23% of the Titans' targets this year), there was just a lot of market share to fill in for Burks, who should produce at various levels of the field based on his profile.
He played mostly out of the slot at Arkansas and could see heavy volume in Year 1, though that doesn't mean top-15 fantasy material within a run-first offense.