Mark Andrews Will Be a Fantasy Football League-Winner Again in 2022
If I told you that last year's TE1 in fantasy football entered this year without his team's top receiver from a year ago, you'd probably be interested.
You might be thinking, in 2022, that applies to Travis Kelce after the Kansas City Chiefs parted ways with top wideout Tyreek Hill. You'd be right -- if Kelce was last year's TE1.
No, you can get last year's top tight end for a late second-round pick this season. His name (I mean, you already know it by now. It's in the headline, and there's a photo of him at the top of the page) is Mark Andrews.
Andrews finished 30.8 half-PPR points clear of Kelce to finish as the top scorer at the position last season, and no other tight end surpassed even 170.0 half-PPR fantasy points.
The Baltimore Ravens traded top wideout Marquise Brown during the NFL Draft and proceeded to draft...no more receivers. They did snag two fourth-round tight ends, but that's not going to impact Andrews much at all.
No, we're getting a tight end set to lead his team in receiving with competition, really, only from Rashod Bateman to vie for the top market share in Baltimore.
That's partially why Andrews is setting up as a can't-fail tight end option yet again in 2022.
Mark Andrews' 2021 Season in Review
Last season, Andrews racked up 107 catches on 153 targets for 1,361 yards and 9 touchdowns. This came while playing four games without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Here are his splits in games with and without Jackson in 2021.
| Mark Andrews With and Without Lamar Jackson |
Games (2021) |
FDP/ G |
Route % |
REC | TGT | CROE | YD | TD | TGT MS% |
AY MS% |
aDOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| With | 12 | 12.9 | 78.4% | 5.6 | 8.3 | 1.6% | 71.1 | 0.5 | 23.7% | 27.1% | 10.9 |
| Without | 5 | 17.8 | 89.2% | 8.0 | 11.0 | 8.1% | 101.6 | 0.6 | 32.0% | 42.1% | 9.6 |
Oh, what's that? He was worse with Jackson. Okay, sure. By "worse" we mean would've still finished as the TE2 on a per-game basis on "just" a 23.7% target share.
In games without Jackson, Andrews drew 66.7% of the team's end zone targets. In games with Jackson, he was at 42.9% (with Brown at 28.6%). Removing Brown from the equation overall allows space for Andrews to build on an elite season that wasn't simply buoyed by touchdowns.
His 1,361-yard outing in 2021 was third-best among all tight end seasons since 2012.
Can We Overlook His Splits With Lamar Jackson?
Yes.
Even with Jackson playing to the NFL average in efficiency in 2021, Andrews put up per-game numbers that would have made him the TE2 (as already mentioned). Jackson, since 2019, has averaged 0.22 Passing NEP per drop back and a 48.6% Passing Success Rate.
NFL averages in that split have been 0.11 and 47.4%, respectively.
If we exclude the monstrous 2019 campaign, Jackson is still above the average at 0.14 and 47.9% in the past two seasons.
In the past three years, Jackson has had one breakout season (2019), one average season (2021), and one above-average season (2020). That's plenty to be excited about Andrews' prospects in 2022 if Jackson remains healthy.
And as long as Andrews and the Ravens aren't a bottom-eight passing offense, his odds to be great remain high.
Mark Andrews Fantasy Football Projection for 2022
numberFire's fantasy football projections are viewing Andrews as the TE2 in fantasy formats, the same as his average draft position in FanDuel's best ball fantasy football formats.
He's projected for 144 targets, 93 catches, 1,155 yards, and 8.8 touchdowns.
Andrews' NFL player prop bet is set at 8.5 touchdowns at NFL odds. He is +2000 to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns, as well.
So, no, Andrews is far from the consensus top pick, and Travis Kelce has a claim to the top spot, as well, but the gap these two have on the rest of the position is sizable.
Make sure you have Andrews in the same tier as Kelce -- because with his efficiency and volume, he's bound to be a top performer again while Jackson aims to experience an uptick in passing efficiency.
