NFL

Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Presented by Amazon Prime Video

How does our algorithm rank the AFC North before some key matchups in Week 3? How good are the Bills? And how high did the Jaguars jump?

Everyone has their own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them take computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.

But numberFire's power rankings do just that.

Through Week 2, we're starting to see who is for real and who has cause for concern.

That being said, records won't always tell the full story in such a small sample. Take, for example, the Cleveland Browns, who are 1-1 after a last-minute loss to the New York Jets in Week 2. They were very nearly one of the remaining unbeaten teams. Instead, we have just six 2-0 teams.

On the flip side, the Browns' AFC North rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers, are also 1-1 after escaping Week 1 with a late overtime win against the Cincinnati Bengals and then narrowly losing to the New England Patriots 17-14 in Week 2.

This week, they square up on Thursday Night Football to see who can get to 2-1. The initial buzz of the NFL season is winding down, and now, the reality of wins and losses is setting in, so that matchup means a lot in terms of the division hierarchy.

Making that game even more exciting is the Prime Video Pick'Em contest offered by Amazon Prime Video and FanDuel. Be sure to answer 10 questions about this week's Thursday Night Football matchup -- for free -- for a chance to win a share of $15,000 in cash prizes. Make your picks now.

Thursday Night Football Amazon Prime Video Pick'Em

Back to the rankings. Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams.

numberFire's NFL Power Rankings

Team Record nERD nERD
Rank
Rank
Change
Playoff
Odds
xWins
Next 3
Bills2-012.551095.4%2.46
Buccaneers2-08.532095.8%2.19
Chiefs2-06.903086.5%1.96
Chargers1-14.254067.7%2.07
49ers1-14.085665.6%1.78
Broncos1-13.726059.8%1.88
Packers1-13.647369.1%1.73
Eagles2-03.647687.7%1.93
Dolphins2-03.079-271.7%1.51
Ravens1-11.8310-560.1%1.31
Rams1-11.4011462.5%1.50
Browns1-10.8112439.6%1.72
Bengals0-20.7713-130.6%1.55
Cowboys1-10.1814347.2%1.57
Patriots1-1-0.6815831.2%1.42
Vikings1-1-0.7816-748.9%1.75
Jaguars1-1-1.16171348.9%1.30
Cardinals1-1-1.2718431.7%1.36
Colts0-1-1-1.3419-1137.7%1.17
Commanders1-1-1.3920136.8%1.39
Saints1-1-1.4021-334.0%1.75
Raiders0-2-2.1822-212.5%1.01
Steelers1-1-2.2323-420.5%1.11
Giants2-0-2.9324141.5%1.27
Titans0-2-3.0825-1119.8%1.32
Panthers0-2-3.1026014.4%1.28
Lions1-1-3.6027024.6%1.38
Bears1-1-3.9428-424.2%1.40
Falcons0-2-5.222906.1%0.96
Jets1-1-5.583027.3%0.96
Texans0-1-1-6.2431010.7%0.89
Seahawks1-1-6.8632-49.8%1.13


The Buffalo Bills have really surged ahead in the power ratings and now have a nERD score of 12.55, a full 4.02 points higher than any other team in the NFL. Buffalo's next five games will test them, though. They travel to play the Miami Dolphins (9th in nERD) and then the Baltimore Ravens (10th). Then they host the Steelers (23rd), travel to Arrowhead to play the Kansas City Chiefs (3rd), and host the Green Bay Packers (7th) on Sunday Night Football in Week 8 after a bye. We could see them dominate the nERD standings even more if they get through that stretch unscathed.

The San Francisco 49ers jumped into the top five after a 27-7 win over the Seattle Seahawks. The big news here is that starting quarterback Trey Lance is out for the season and that the team will now move forward with Jimmy Garoppolo.

Two more NFC teams jumped firmly into the top 10: the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles, who have identical 3.64 nERD scores.

The big difference is that the Eagles are 2-0 and hold an 87.7% playoff probability, the third-highest mark in the NFL.

The 1-1 Packers hold a 69.1% playoff probability. In two of their next six games, they play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2nd) and the Bills (1st in nERD) but also three teams 20th or worse: the New York Giants (24th), the Jets (30th), and the Washington Commanders (20th).

Let's take a closer look at the AFC North.

The Browns, Steelers, and Baltimore Ravens are all 1-1, and the Bengals are 0-2, so record-wise, things are tight.

The nERD ratings saw the Browns climb four spots this week while Baltimore fell from 5th to 10th and the Steelers dropped from 19th to 23rd. Our model has Pittsburgh with the lowest division odds (20.5%) of all four teams in the division. Baltimore has a tough three-game stretch, however, and a big win for the Steelers on the road would level things out.

That said, our model likes Cleveland to get the win 71.4% of the time, so a bounce-back win would have Cleveland sitting pretty entering Week 4's matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (29th). They'll need every win they can secure by then because, after that, their next seven opponents are all in the top 15 in nERD, and three of them are in the top four.