Week 3 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions
Each and every week throughout the NFL season, the experts at numberFire will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of their picks to provide context for their reasoning.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Brandon Gdula, Senior Managing Editor
Side: Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Chris Olave Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Chris Olave churned out 80 yards last week on 13 targets, but along with those targets came 307 air yards. The downfield potential for Olave means he can surpass 40.5 yards on just one or two catches. Carolina ranks 26th in yards per target this season so far on downfield throws of 10+ yards.
Jim Sannes, Senior Writer and Analyst
Side: Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 (-110)
Total: Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans Under 45.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Chase Edmonds Under 33.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Edmonds lost early-down work to Raheem Mostert last week, and with how Edmonds performed in Week 1, I'd expect the role change to stick. Edmonds should still come in for passing downs and negative game scripts (which we saw last week), but neither of those contributes to his rushing prop. Also, the Dolphins' offensive line just isn't built to support a solid ground game, allowing me to take the under even at this low line.
Austan Kas, Editor
Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 (-108)
Per our nERD metric, the Bucs are a good bit better than the Packers. Tampa Bay's nERD of 8.53 -- which is their expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field -- is well clear of Green Bay's 3.64 mark. The Mike Evans suspension hurts, but the Bucs' defense, the number-one D in the league by our numbers, is why I'm bullish on Tampa. Facing the Bucs' stingy run defense, Green Bay's new-look passing game may have to shoulder the load, and I don't think they're ready to do so right now.
Player Prop: David Montgomery Any Time Touchdown (+100)
Kenyatta Storin, Editor
Side: Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110)
This matchup rates as the sixth-best in pace and second-best in pass rate, per our Brandon Gdula, which is a great sign for this game seeing a fair bit of scoring. The Bengals have underperformed on offense thus far, but this could be a get-right spot against a Jets defense that ranks 30th in numberFire's metrics.
Player Prop: Lamar Jackson Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Tom Vecchio, Editor
Side: Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Stefon Diggs Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Diggs comes in with a team-high 32.9% target share, 10.8 average depth of target (aDOT), and 38.5% red zone target share. Josh Allen targets Diggs often, targets him downfield, and targets him in the red zone. This week, the Bills are rocking a slate-high 29.0-point implied team total and are set to take on the Dolphins, where the over/under is a whopping 52.5 points. The Dolphins also come in with the 10th-worst pass defense by our numbers.
Austin Swaim, Editor
Side: Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-115)
Player Prop: Joe Mixon 80+ Rushing Yards (+110)
Pro Football Focus is giving the Bengals' revamped O-Line a 37% run blocking advantage on the Jets' defense, so in a spot where the Bengals are moderate favorites, Mixon could provide his best production of the season. On average, he's played 75.8% of the snaps and gotten 23.0 carries, but the stout rushing defenses of Pittsburgh (with TJ Watt) and Dallas bottled him up. In Mixon's best matchup yet, I love his chances to encroach the century mark on the ground, which makes 80 yards at plus-money juice a no-brainer for me.