3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 4
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Darren Waller Any Time Touchdown (+200)
For an any-time touchdown, we jump right to Darren Waller with odds up at +200, which are rather high. The Raiders have a 24.00 implied team total this week and are slight 2.5-point favorites over the Broncos, and there's plenty of opportunity for Waller to reach the end zone.
First off, Raiders' wide receiver Hunter Renfrow didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday and is still in the concussion protocol after missing last week's game. This puts Waller in a spot to see plenty of action in the passing game in what is already a favorable matchup.
This season, Waller comes in with a 16.4% target share, which is tied for the second-highest on the team when Renfrow is out. Waller is playing on 69.8% of the snaps, running a route on 77.3% of drop backs. He has a total of six red-zone targets, which are good for a 19.2% red zone target share (second-highest on the team). Waller is one of the key targets for Derek Carr in the red zone, and his odds are up at +200.
When it comes to the matchup, it's an easier one for Waller since the Broncos have allowed the 11th-most (164) yards to tight ends this season, the 7th-most receptions (18), and allowed a pair of touchdowns.
With his role in the passing offense and a strong matchup against the Broncos, Waller is in a great spot to find the end zone this week.
Josh Allen Over 38.5 Passing Attempts (-122)
A big 51.0-point over/under in a game that features two of the best quarterbacks in the league should be appointment viewing this Sunday. When the scoring expectation is this high, we want to look at player props that correlate positively with that outcome.
This leads me to Josh Allen to post over 38.5 passing attempts -- a spot I will continue to look at this season for a few reasons.
First off, Josh Allen is really good. Second, passing attempts can be accurately projected due to a team's offensive tendencies and the game environment overall.
The game environment is already taken care of with a high 51.0-point over/under, indicating there will be a lot of plays run. That is in line with what we've seen from Buffalo this season since they are averaging 71.0 offensive plays per game, which is the fifth-highest in the league.
When it comes to Buffalo's offense, they have a 66.20% pass play percentage, which is the sixth-highest in the league. They run a ton of plays every game, and the majority of the plays that they run are going to be passing plays.
That should always be the goal when one of the league's best quarterbacks is at the helm -- but especially so this week. The Ravens come in with the 10th-worst pass defense by our metrics, clearly making it advantageous for the Bills to flex their passing offense.
The Bills won't be the first team to do this since it's been a common trend for teams to attack the Ravens' pass defense this season. Through the first three weeks of the season, the Ravens' defense allows their opponents to average 47.0 pass attempts per game, which is the most in the NFL.
Between the high total, Allen's individual skill, the Bills' offensive play-calling tendencies, and the Ravens' defense, it all points to the over 38.5 passing attempts this week.
Miles Sanders Over 8.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
A soft matchup puts Miles Sanders in a great spot for his prop this week.
Over 8.5 receiving yards is a rather low total, and the matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars couldn't be better for Sanders. This is yet another game with a strong total set at 45.5 points, which should give way to a lot of offensive back-and-forth action.
To this point in the season, Sanders hasn't played a big role in the passing game in any capacity. He has a total of 6 targets, 6 receptions, and 13 yards -- nothing to write home about. There was plenty of talk in training camp that Kenneth Gainwell would be the receiving back for the Philadelphia Eagles, but that hasn't come to fruition either.
Sanders is playing on 53.8% of the snaps, running a route on 41.9% of drop backs, and has a 6.5% target share. Again, nothing to write home about.
But, if we compare that to Gainwell, it's not that different. Gainwell is playing on 28.8% of the snaps, running a route on 26.7% of drop backs, and has a 6.5% target share. Gainwell has turned all of that into 6 targets, 3 receptions, and 23 yards.
It's mainly a bunch of nothing from both running backs. Sanders still plays on more snaps and has a great matchup to exploit. This season, the Jaguars have allowed the most (201) receiving yards and the second-most (26) receptions to opposing running backs.
With the Eagles rocking a high 26.00 implied team total, they are expected to move the ball down the field often in this matchup.
Add all of this up and Sanders is projected for 12.27 receiving yards, hitting the over on his 8.5-yard receiving prop this week.