Monday Night Football Betting: Will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs Continue Dominating and Cover the Spread?
Finishing up Week 5 is a divisional matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders in Arrowhead Stadium.
The Raiders notched their first win of the season last week against the Denver Broncos, and the Chiefs bounced back from an unexpected loss to the Indianapolis Colts with an impressive win in Tampa Bay over the Buccaneers.
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
| Team | nERD | nERD Rank | Rushing Offense | Passing Offense | Rushing Defense | Passing Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6.34 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 24 | 18 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | -0.33 | 16 | 6 | 23 | 17 | 27 |
Inside the Standard Bets
Our model is giving a significant edge to Kansas City, having them winning outright 76.5% of the time. However, that comes with covering the rather large 7-point spread only 49.8% of the time.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chiefs' moneyline odds are -350 (implied probability 77.8%) and odds to cover the spread are set at -114 (53.3%).
The point total line for this matchup sits at 51.5 points, but our model gives a only 50.9% chance these AFC West “rivals” will put up more points than the over (-114 odds, 53.3% implied). The under odds sits at -106 (51.5% implied).
It seems our models aren’t fans of any of the standard wagers, but I won't leave you with an empty betslip.
I put rivals in quotes above: that’s because this matchup hasn’t been very competitive as of late.
Last season, Kansas City outscored the Raiders by a total of 66 points in their two regular-season matchups. Since 2018, per Pro Football Reference, the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs have outscored the Raiders by an average of 18.75 points. That's why I like Kansas City to cover.
Player and Team Prop Value Bets
I just laid out how one-sided this matchup has been over the last four seasons, with Kansas City winning seven of the last eight meetings by a wide margin.
Part of the reason Kansas City has been dominant in the matchup is that they have constantly put up a lot of points. The Chiefs' point total tonight is 30.5, which they have exceeded in all but one of their last eight meetings against the Raiders. At -106 odds, taking Kansas City to go over their point total is nice value.
Our player projection model expects Jerick McKinnon to have a fairly productive game. He is projected for 43 total yards. His rushing and receiving line on FanDuel Sportsbook is 25.5, so our model says to take the over here and feel great about it.
Final Notes
The Raiders are 2-2 against the spread over their last four Monday night outings. They are 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road.
The Chiefs have covered in three of their four last Monday night games, and the under has hit in each.
