NFL

Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Presented by GMC

We have to give the Jets some love, but no team has outrun expectations more than the Seahawks. See how every team ranks entering Week 10.

Everyone has their own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them take computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.

But numberFire's power rankings do just that.

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Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams.

numberFire's NFL Power Rankings

Team Record nERD nERD
Rank
Rank
Change
Playoff
Odds
xWins
Next 3
Bills6-212.431099.0%2.66
Eagles8-010.7520100.0%2.70
Chiefs6-28.803098.1%2.48
Cowboys6-27.484099.0%2.12
Bengals5-46.965051.6%2.03
Ravens6-34.296194.2%2.18
Jets6-33.117657.5%1.80
Vikings7-12.538-299.0%1.16
Giants6-21.309075.5%1.98
49ers4-40.8310184.0%1.72
Buccaneers4-50.7911-369.1%1.69
Dolphins6-30.4112277.8%1.93
Jaguars3-60.3913314.7%1.31
Patriots5-4-0.2014826.9%0.95
Saints3-6-0.5515-513.9%1.62
Seahawks6-3-0.6116579.7%1.59
Broncos3-5-0.641706.4%1.79
Titans5-3-0.9918186.9%1.31
Browns3-5-1.0719112.9%0.99
Chargers5-3-1.1220-264.1%1.09
Cardinals3-6-1.4421-96.4%1.50
Packers3-6-2.1222-75.7%0.84
Rams3-5-2.7323122.6%0.99
Commanders4-5-3.2424210.6%1.41
Bears3-6-3.632504.1%1.39
Raiders2-6-3.9326-34.0%1.36
Falcons4-5-4.6027027.4%1.48
Steelers2-6-4.782802.5%1.11
Lions2-6-7.322921.0%0.63
Colts3-5-1-7.343003.3%0.91
Panthers2-7-7.4831-22.1%0.87
Texans1-6-1-11.643200.1%0.47


A Week 9 loss for the Buffalo Bills wasn't enough to kick them out of first place in the power rankings. Although their playoff odds are virtually unchanged, their Super Bowl odds did fall from 36.2% to 30.3%, a 5.9-point drop that still keeps them at the top of the heap in that category. With a 6-2 record, there's enough of a lead baked in for the Bills to weather Josh Allen's elbow injury so long as it doesn't linger too long. They have an expected win total of 2.66 over their next three games.

How about those New York Jets, though? New York toppled Buffalo 20-17 in Week 9, earning them their first win of the season against a team currently ranked better than 12th in the rankings. Their other wins have been by 1, 4, 23, 17, and 7 points against non-elite opponents, so they had a lot to prove by passing such a tough test. They vaulted to seventh in the rankings this week. They are also now more likely than not (57.5%) to make the playoffs, according to our model.

The Seattle Seahawks are now up to a 79.7% playoff probability after four straight double-digit wins -- bookended by two 10-point wins over the Arizona Cardinals. That reflects a 32.7-point playoff boost, and the Seahawks are now 40.1% likely to win the NFC West. Geno Smith's squad is ultimately up 66.7 points in playoff probability from the start of the season; no other team has climbed by more than 50.0 points.

After a divisional loss, the Green Bay Packers (5.7%) have single-digit playoff odds. Green Bay's playoff probability fell 17.7 points, the only double-digit drop for any team after Week 9. For Green Bay, their preseason odds were 73.3%, and their fall has been larger than any team's from a playoff odds standpoint.