Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 11
Is anyone who we thought they were a week ago in the NFL? Two of the consensus top-three sides in the league lost in Week 10, both at home, while some teams who were almost written as dead showed signs of life and put in frisky performances this past week. The game still seems very much afoot as the season rolls on.
The last week of action has slightly altered every team's odds of winning the Super Bowl this season. Thanks to the FanDuel Sportsbook, we have the latest odds for each team, as well as their odds of success as per our metrics at numberFire.
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | nF Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +380 | 20.8% | 24.4% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +500 | 16.7% | 21.6% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +600 | 14.3% | 19.0% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +800 | 11.1% | 1.9% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +1100 | 8.3% | 8.0% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1300 | 7.1% | 3.5% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1500 | 6.3% | 4.9% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1700 | 5.6% | 2.3% |
| Miami Dolphins | +1700 | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +2800 | 3.4% | 5.5% |
| Tennessee Titans | +2800 | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +3400 | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +5000 | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| New England Patriots | +6000 | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| New York Jets | +6000 | 1.6% | 1.9% |
| New York Giants | +6000 | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Green Bay Packers | +7500 | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Cleveland Browns | +12000 | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Washington Commanders | +12000 | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +14000 | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| New Orleans Saints | +15000 | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +15000 | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Atlanta Falcons | +16000 | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Denver Broncos | +18000 | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +21000 | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +24000 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +31000 | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Lions | +39000 | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Carolina Panthers | +45000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +55000 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Chicago Bears | +85000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Houston Texans | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The losses suffered by the Buffalo Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles knocked their odds a little, with the Bills falling from +300 to +380 and the Eagles going to +600 after sitting at +500 a week ago. The Kansas City Chiefs' win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, coupled with the losses by other frontrunners, improved their odds marginally.
The San Francisco 49ers and the Minnesota Vikings saw their odds improve as they remain hot on the Eagles' trail in the NFC. The 49ers now sit at +800, four weeks after they could be had at +1900. However, we aren't as high on San Fran. They are currently ranked 11th overall by our nERD metric, and among NFC squads, we give them the fifth-best chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The reigning Super Bowl champions saw their title odds fall dramatically after Week 10. The Los Angeles Rams' odds have dropped to +14000 after they lost to the Arizona Cardinals, and they have their once-ballyhooed offense to thank for this. The Rams are ranked 27th in offense by our metrics, with our numbers having their passing offense ranked worse than such high-powered units as the New York Jets and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
At the time of writing, no teams have yet been eliminated from the playoff picture, so all 32 teams still technically have a chance of winning the Super Bowl. But it's getting late for the Houston Texans. They have held odds of +100000 for each of the last weeks.
