Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 12
The NFL season has hit Thanksgiving Week, and many teams are thankful that the season is drawing to a close. It would be fair to say things haven't gone to plan for many in 2022, so much so that the top of the Super Bowl betting market seems to be concentrating on a big four set of teams, while everyone else sees their chances of ultimate triumph shrink with each passing week.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the latest odds for every team to win the Super Bowl this season. You can see them below, complete with the odds that our metrics at numberFire give each team.
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | nF Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +400 | 20.0% | 21.7% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +470 | 17.5% | 14.5% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +550 | 15.4% | 18.4% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +700 | 12.5% | 10.1% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1000 | 9.1% | 7.2% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1200 | 7.7% | 6.6% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +1700 | 5.6% | 3.1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1700 | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| Miami Dolphins | +1700 | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +2500 | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Tennessee Titans | +2700 | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +4100 | 2.4% | 1.3% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +5000 | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| New England Patriots | +6500 | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| New York Giants | +7500 | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| New York Jets | +10000 | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Washington Commanders | +11000 | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Green Bay Packers | +13000 | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | +13000 | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Atlanta Falcons | +13000 | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Detroit Lions | +15000 | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +21000 | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +21000 | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland Browns | +22000 | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +22000 | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +25000 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +28000 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Denver Broncos | +55000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Carolina Panthers | +55000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +75000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chicago Bears | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Houston Texans | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The Buffalo Bills remain the favorites after they got right against the Cleveland Browns in Detroit. But the Kansas City Chiefs are snapping at the Bills' heels, as they saw their odds improve from +500 to +470 this week.
The Philadelphia Eagles remain in third in the betting after their comeback victory over the Indianapolis Colts, while the San Francisco 49ers continue their charge up the betting boards. They are second favorites among the NFC, seeing their odds improve for the fifth straight week.
The Dallas Cowboys' odds improved after their 40-3 beatdown of the Minnesota Vikings, impacting the odds of both teams. The Cowboys are up to +1000 while the Vikings dropped to +1700. The other big mover among the "second tier" was the Cincinnati Bengals, who saw off the hapless Pittsburgh Steelers to improve their record to 5-4 and their title odds to +2500.
Two NFC teams going the other way in the eyes of the bookies are the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams. The Packers fell to the Tennessee Titans last Thursday night and dropped to 4-6. Their title odds are now all the way out to +13000. The defending Super Bowl champion Rams were dropped by the New Orleans Saints and now sit at 3-6. You can get them at +21000 to repeat as champions, but it wouldn't be a wise investment.
As we approach the clinching season, there are a number of teams that we at numberFire currently don't consider to have any chance at all of winning the Super Bowl this season. This is evidenced by the fact that 10 teams have a 0.0% chance of ultimate triumph according to our metrics -- although a few of those teams would have some chance if you carried out the decimal far enough. This group includes the Rams, the Browns, the Steelers and the Denver Broncos. Fair to say these teams probably pictured the 2022 season going in a different way than it has.
