NFL Betting Guide: Will the Cowboys' Offense Keep Rolling Against the Giants on Thanksgiving?
The midday staple on Thanksgiving once again belongs to the Dallas Cowboys, who are 7-3 on the season and rank third in numberFire's power ratings for the season.
They'll host division rivals this time around. The New York Giants come to town with an identical 7-3 record. However, they're ranked 15th in the power rankings, according to numberFire.
With the same record but differences in efficiency, how can we expect this one to play out?
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-10.0)
numberFire's model is indicating no picks across the spread (Cowboys -10.0), moneyline (Cowboys -460), and total (45.5) in this game, so it's important to remember that these lines are pretty efficient.
When I look at this game, it's important to keep in mind relevant samples for squads, and I think that's where I find the best edge.
The Cowboys have had quarterback Dak Prescott back in action since Week 7, and in that sample, they have the second-best points-per-play rate on offense across the entire NFL. With my opponent adjustments factored in, I do have them as a team that's overperformed a bit (by 0.04 points per play), but the expected points per play mark since Week 7 for them still ranks them fifth in the NFL.
If you think about the injuries for the Giants, they could struggle to score. They've now lost Sterling Shepard and Wan'Dale Robinson to season-ending injuries and Kadarius Toney to a trade.
However, the Giants' offense in two games without all three of those receivers has an expected points-per-play rate that would rank them inside the top five of the NFL -- strangely enough.
My model has the spread at 9.5 points for the Cowboys (and numberFire's median expectation is a 10.2-point win for Dallas), so I think that's a bit too tight.
Where I am seeing value, though, is on the over (45.5). These are two capable offenses, specifically the Cowboys with Prescott back. The Giants and Cowboys have solid defenses -- but not solid enough to keep this game under 45.5 points.
Player Props to Target
Saquon Barkley Over 98.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114) - Barkley's Giants are sizable underdogs, which should lead to elevated passing for their offense. He is projected for 3.6 catches and 22.0 yards as a baseline, but the Cowboys allow a catch rate over expectation of +3.7% to running backs and haven't really been tested out of the backfield much this season. Barkley had 45 receiving yards against Dallas in Week 3. He's averaging 116.3 scrimmage yards per game for the season.
Darius Slayton Alternate Receiving Yards (50+) (-106) - Slayton has had a 22.0% target share in two games without the trio of aforementioned receivers no longer on the active roster. That comes with 62.4 air yards per game and a 13.9-yard average depth of target. He's averaging an awesome 3.10 yards per route run in that sample and also is coming off of a 10-target game while Wan'Dale Robinson had 13. He should lead this team in targets easily.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114) - I know it's three overs, but I'm playing the angle of the game itself going over and thus banking on the correlation of yardage and points. The luster on Elliott has worn off for many, but he has a much better rushing success rate (50.0%) than Tony Pollard (44.4%) -- make no mistake: both are elite -- since Prescott's return. Plus, the Giants allow 0.75 yards over expectation per carry to running backs on the ground. Consistent, efficient rushes for Elliott seem likely, and that should get him to 44 or more yards on the ground.
