3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 14
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
T.J. Hockenson Any Time Touchdown (+190)
The Week 14 Sunday slate has several great player props, so let's jump in!
Last week, I went with the revenge narrative of A.J. Brown against his former team, the Tennessee Titans. This week, it's another revenge narrative, with Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson facing the team that traded him this season, the Detroit Lions. While the revenge narrative is fun, there's more to it than just that.
First off, this is setting up to be one of the best games on the slate with a big 51.5-point over/under and a 1.5-point spread. The Lions have struggled defensively this season but especially so when it comes to opposing tight ends.
This season, the Lions have allowed the 2nd-most (8) touchdowns, 10th-most (60) receptions, and 11th-most (649) receiving yards to tight ends. This puts Hockenson in a great spot to have his first big breakout game since joining the Vikings.
Speaking of joining the Vikings, in the five weeks since Hockenson has been with them, he has a 21.4% target share, 15.2% air yards share, and 23.4% and red zone target share, all while playing on 86.1% of the snaps and running a route on 81.4% of drop backs.
The matchup is flat-out elite for Hockenson, who is playing a strong role for the Vikings and just so happens to be going against his former team.
Ja'Marr Chase Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
When it comes to the Bengals, Ja'Marr Chase is their best offensive player, and getting the ball to him early and often is never a bad idea. The Bengals have done just that this season, as Chase is rocking a 27.5% target share and 35.5% air yards share, both of which are the highest on the team.
Chase has gone over this 80.5 mark in five of his eight games this season, where in three of those games he finished with 129 yards or more. He will maintain a high ceiling due to his high involvement in the passing game and big-play ability.
The Browns' secondary isn't anything to worry about too much because they come in as the 17th-ranked pass defense, per our metrics.
All of this has Chase projected for 86.47 receiving yards, which has him going over his prop total this week.
Travis Kelce Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Finally, let's turn to Travis Kelce and the over on his receiving total this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a loss and are in a spot to bounce back as large 9.5-point favorites against the lowly Denver Broncos. While the Chiefs are heavy favorites on paper, this is an important matchup for them in terms of securing a playoff spot and seeding.
This should be a no-nonsense game from them, and that means leaning on their best offensive player -- Kelce -- not named Patrick Mahomes. Surprisingly, Kelce has been a bit quiet in the last two weeks, ending with fewer than 60 yards and just 4 receptions in each game.
That's not what we expect from the best tight end in the league, but this matchup is one he should be able to attack. The Broncos have allowed the 11th-most (60) receptions and the 15th-most (603) receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season.
To no one's surprise, Kelce leads the Chiefs in nearly every receiving category this season except air yards share, where he is at 23.5% and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is at 24.5%. As noted above with Hockenson, Kelce leads all tight ends this season in Receiving NEP.
All of that should allow Kelce to hit the over on his receiving total this week, something he has done regularly against the Broncos. Over his career, Kelce has averaged 78.4 receiving yards in 15 games versus the Broncos.