Week 14 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions
Each and every week throughout the NFL season, the experts at numberFire will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of their picks to provide context for their reasoning.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Brandon Gdula, Senior Managing Editor
Side: Detroit Lions -1.5 (-114)
Player Prop: D'Andre Swift Over 63.5 Rushing plus Receiving Yards (-114)
D'Andre Swift's snap rate climbed back up to 51.4% this past week, and after a limited practice on Wednesday, he was full by Thursday. Swift draws the Vikings, who are fifth-worst by catch rate allowed to opposing backs. In Week 13, Swift generated 111 scrimmage yards on 20 opportunities. The ground matchup is just okay, but it's the receiving potential here that should get Swift over 63.5 total yards.
Jim Sannes, Senior Writer and Analyst
Side: Detroit Lions -1.5 (-114)
I get why it seems dumb to be into the Lions as favorites against a 10-2 team. But my numbers say Detroit should be favored by around a field goal at home. That's largely due to their passing efficiency, which has trended up as their receivers have gotten healthier. They lost the first meeting with the Vikings, but that was due to poor situational coaching and rough late-down efficiency. They've exceeded their expected success rate on late downs in now six straight games, and the defense is playing better, too. I get the resistance to this line, but I do think Detroit is the better team.
Player Prop: James Cook Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Kenyatta Storin, Editor
Side: New York Giants +7.0 (-105)
Between Denver's historically poor offense and a defense that ranks sixth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, their games are averaging just 30.8 combined points. In fact, the Broncos have cleared this over/under just once all year, and that required their offense to score a season-best 23 points. Even this electric Chiefs offense will have a difficult time pushing this total over if they have to do nearly all the legwork in a road divisional matchup.
Player Prop: D'Andre Swift Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Tom Vecchio, Editor
Side: Tennessee Titans -3.5 (-118)
Player Prop: T.J. Hockenson Any Time Touchdown (+190)
This season, the Lions have allowed the 2nd-most (8) touchdowns, 10th-most (60) receptions, and 11th-most (649) receiving yards to tight ends. This puts Hockenson in a great spot to have his first big breakout game since joining the Vikings. Speaking of joining the Vikings, in the five weeks since Hockenson has been with them, he has a 21.4% target share, 15.2% air yards share, and 23.4% red zone target share, all while playing on 86.1% of the snaps and running a route on 81.4% of drop backs.
Austin Swaim, Editor
Side: Carolina Panthers +4.0 (-110)
Player Prop: Dalvin Cook Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Detroit is the best possible matchup for a running back. They're numberFire's worst adjusted rush defense. In that event, Dalvin Cook is a serious threat to go over 100 yards. He received 20 of 23 Minnesota running back carries last week, so long gone are the days of a more even split with Alexander Mattison. In a projected shootout, it shouldn't surprise anyone if either team tries a rush-heavy approach to save their defense. Cook is projected for a median 82.3 rushing yards by our model, which exceeds this total by a decent margin.