3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 14

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.

Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 113.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-113)

Monday Night Football features the Arizona Cardinals hosting the New England Patriots with a 43.5-point over/under and a close 2.5-point spread.

The Patriots are slight favorites in this game and considering they are in the hunt for the playoffs, it should be a rather straightforward gameplan for their offense. That means they should get the ball to their best player, Rhamondre Stevenson. With Damien Harris listed as doubtful and Jakobi Meyers listed as out, it should point to more work for Stevenson.

To this point in the season, Stevenson has a 19.4% target share, which is the second-highest on the team behind Meyers (22.1%), who is ruled out. Getting the ball via the passing game to Stevenson won't be anything new; he has racked up seven-plus targets in five of his last six games, going for at least 56 yards or more in four of those.

This should come in handy against the Cardinals, who have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs this season (527).

The Patriots last played on Thursday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills in Week 13. Harris was out due to the same thigh issue that has him listed as doubtful for tonight. In that game, Stevenson played on 53 of 54 snaps and grabbed 10 of the 11 running back rushing attempts.

Long story short, he is clearly the go-to guy in their offense when they are missing some players. Speaking of missing players, the Patriots have one offensive lineman listed as out, and two listed as questionable. If the Pats aren't able to run the ball effectively due to a depleted offensive line, it can lead them to pass the ball more, putting Stevenson in a spot for plenty of action.

All of this has Stevenson projected for 130.45 combined rushing plus receiving yards, which has him hitting the over on his prop tonight.

Kyler Murray Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Next up, let's take a look at Kyler Murray's rushing prop.

There are a few things to take into account for Murray and what will cause him to run the ball more, putting him in a spot to hit the over on his prop. First off, the Patriots are a tough run defense and have allowed the fifth-fewest (954) rushing yards to running backs this season. They've been solid all season, and if the Cardinals can't get James Conner going, they are going to have to turn to the passing game.

Them passing the ball won't be too much of a surprise, they have a 61.36% pass-play percentage, which is the eighth-highest in the league. That means Murray will be dropping back often, which means he is going to be in a spot to scramble and rack up the rushing yards.

Murray should be forced out of the pocket quickly since the Patriots lead the league in quarterback hurries per dropback at 12.7%.

Not being able to pick up yards on the ground will lead the Cardinals to pass the ball more. Being under pressure and forced out of the pocket will allow Murray to scramble and pick up yards, leading to him hitting over 34.5 rushing yards tonight.

Mac Jones Under 32.5 Passing Attempts (-114)

Finally, let's take under 32.5 passing attempts for Mac Jones.

The Patriots are a run-first team and come in with a 43.82% rush play percentage, which is the 13th highest in the league. Passing the ball hasn't been their first priority this season, and with their best wide receiver, Jakobi Meyers, ruled out tonight, it leaves them a bit lacking in that department.

Pushing the ball downfield at a high rate with their best player doesn't seem like the path to winning. That's not mentioning the Cardinals have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers this season (1,714), making it a rather tough matchup.

When it comes to Mac Jones, he has "played" in nine games this season, but it's really eight games. I'm removing the Monday Night game against the Chicago Bears where he had only six passing attempts and was benched in favor of Bailey Zappe.

If we remove that game from his stats, in the other eight games, he's only averaging 33.25 passing attempts per game. He's barely hitting the over on this prop based on his average, which doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Circle back to the Patriots missing Meyers tonight, and passing the ball shouldn't be their first choice tonight.