NFL

Fantasy Football: 3 Things We Learned in Week 15

After a season of searching, Patrick Mahomes' second reliable target has clearly emerged. What else did we learn this past weekend in the NFL?

Perhaps more than anything, fantasy football is a game of adjustments. Season-long fantasy doesn't end at the draft, and smart managers learn to take the trends and data that each week of games offers and apply it to their roster decisions moving forward.

This weekly piece will look at trends from the previous slate of games and determine which trends in snaps, usage, and matchups are actionable moving forward. Let's dive in and look at some interesting pieces of information from an exciting Week 15.

Zack Moss Could Be a League-Winner

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor was placed on season-ending injured reserve today, so the backfield for the last three games will be turned over to a combination of Zack Moss and Deon Jackson to finish the season.

Since Taylor went out so early on Saturday, we were able to see the Colts' game plan with only Moss and Jackson available to them, and the script heavily favored Moss -- even when the Minnesota Vikings were making their historic comeback.

In the game (that did go into overtime, so playing times are bloated), Moss played 53 snaps to just 25 for Jackson. He out-carried Jackson 24 to 13 but also ran 14 routes to just nine for Jackson. Moss was even in on 10 third downs compared to just 4 for Jackson, and the Colts clearly trust him in the passing game. Moss was not a zero in the reception department in college. He had 28 catches for 388 yards in his senior season for almost a 10.0% target share.

Moss is likely to be the back that the Colts lean on heavily the rest of the way, and that could be a good thing for fantasy managers. Two of the Colts' last three games are against the Chargers and Texans -- the two teams that have allowed the most rushing yards to running backs this season.

Empty the free agent budget wallet for Moss this week; there's no use holding onto it for another time.

Jerick McKinnon Was the Answer All Along

Back in the 2022 preseason, we were all debating who would be the running back to roster on the Kansas City Chiefs and their high-powered offense. Many thought Clyde Edwards-Helaire was due a bounce-back considering his oversized role in the offense. Others thought talented rookie Isiah Pacheco would be the lead guy and the one you want for the season. There were even a few minutes when people were high on Ronald Jones and his experience.

It turns out, Jerick McKinnon was the answer all along.

McKinnon has now finished as the RB1 in back-to-back weeks and leads the position in fantasy points in that stretch. It's not particularly close either. Only Christian McCaffrey is within 16 points of McKinnon's 59 half-PPR points in Weeks 14 and 15. The offensive environment and game scripts have worked out perfectly for McKinnon, and he looks like he is going to be a league winner in redraft, dynasty, and best-ball formats on every platform.

His skill set aligns perfectly with what the Chiefs want to do on a game-by-game basis. Even when they blow teams out, they prefer the pass. Kansas City is fifth in the NFL with a 62.2% pass play rate this season, and that is with playing with a lead in most games. True rushers like Pacheco, Edwards-Helaire, and Jones play a role on this team, but it is pass-catchers we need to prioritize in this offense as long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are paired up.

We wondered all off-season which wide receiver would replace all of the usage and production from Tyreek Hill once he was traded away. But, once again, it turns out the answer was always Jerick McKinnon.

All Juwan Johnson Does is Score Touchdowns

We know trying to find a tight end that works this season (not named Travis Kelce) is a fool's errand. After Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert got hurt, it seems to be an endless stream of touchdown-dependent guys just trying to pick up the scraps left behind by Kelce. But, after returning from a two-game injury absence, Juwan Johnson is putting his name back on the tight end map in a big way.

Johnson has played in just 12 of 14 games this year. He has more than one catch in just 10 of those games, yet Johnson is second among all tight ends with seven touchdowns. The reason? He has become the Saints' primary weapon in the red zone. Despite ranking only 20th in receptions at the position, Johnson is eighth in red zone targets and eighth in red zone touchdowns. His 60% catch rate in that area also is among the leaders at tight end and ranks sixth in quarterback ranking when targeted.

Johnson's remaining games against Carolina, Philadelphia, and Cleveland leave him with a tough road ahead, but he has been able to dominate in fantasy points no matter the opponent. Despite being the TE8 in total fantasy points this season in half-PPR leagues, Johnson is only rostered in 21% of Yahoo leagues at this time.