NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/15/20

Grant White  —  @4thlinesports Sep 15th, 2020

After the way 2020 has gone, it's hard to believe, but we could be one game away from the Stanley Cup Finals. The Dallas Stars staged a third-period comeback and won in overtime to punch their ticket to the Final. Now it's the Tampa Bay Lightning's turn to see if they can do the same.

Here's are a couple plays worth looking at tonight!

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders

Lightning moneyline (-175): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

Over 5.5 (+125): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

If there's something to be said about special teams in the NHL, then we should be singing the Tampa Bay Lightning's praises from the mountain tops. Advanced metrics indicate that this series should be much closer than it is. But thanks to their penalty kill, Tampa is firmly in the driver's seat in the Eastern Conference Finals.

They say that goaltenders have to be the best penalty killers, and the Lightning can attest to that. Andrei Vasilevskiy has put up a mind-numbing 96.6% save percentage on the penalty kill this series, which has helped the Bolts kill 13 of 14 power-plays -- good for a 92.9% kill rate.

Power-play inefficiency is far from the only problem plaguing the New York Islanders. Although game scores continue to support that they should be more competitive in this series, they continue to be outplayed at 5-on-5. New York has been out-shot and has given up more high-danger chances at 5-on-5 in all four games. Consequently, at 5-on-5 they've been outscored by an 11-6 margin. When you consider that they've also been outscored 4-1 on the power-play, it's easy to see how they ended up in this 3-1 hole.

Tampa has been the cream of the Eastern Conference crop this postseason, and there's no reason to believe that they won't eliminate the Islanders tonight. Our model projects that Tampa has a 63.9% chance of winning tonight, and the betting market currently has the Lightning installed as -175 favorites, which implies 63.6% win odds. Also, there's an edge in taking the over 5.5, which is currently listed at +125.