NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 2/9/21

Sergei Bobrovsky has seen decreased metrics since coming to Florida. Can the Red Wings expose those inefficiencies tonight?

We are down to seven games on tonight's NHL docket, after the Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers had their game postponed. With that, the league is up to three postponements tonight and four more on Thursday night. That's not going to stop us from finding value on the NHL board though.

Here are the plays we're looking at!

Florida Panthers vs Detroit Red Wings

Red Wings moneyline (+184): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Red Wings +1.5 (-152): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 5.5 (-125): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

I hope I'm not the only one who thinks that Sergei Bobrovsky is getting severely overpriced in the betting market. The veteran tendy has struggled since joining the Florida Panthers stopping only 89.8% of shots faced and seen his goals-against average climb to 3.26. Bobrovsky is well off career averages, but he's 54 games into tenure with his new club and the 32-year-old has had few bright spots to focus on. Hockey players are a function of their system, and it could be that Bobrovsky isn't well fit for the Panthers' schemes.

The Panthers have emphasized defensive structure this season, allowing more than 28 scoring chances and 8 high-danger chances in just one game. That tighter defensive structure has come at the expense of offensive opportunities though as the Panthers are generating 25.8 scoring opportunities and 9.5 high-danger opportunities.

Despite the decreased production, output remains effective. The Panthers are averaging 3.2 goals per game on 9.8% shooting. Although the shooting percentage appears stable, the team is overachieving relative to production. They've managed just three goals over their last two games, which could be an indicator that the team is in the midst of their correction phase.

Positives might be few and far between for the Detroit Red Wings this season. Inconsistent play has been one of their downfalls, as the Wings alternate between above-average and sub-par production. But one thing is working in the Wings favor, they have posted a positive expected goals-for in six games and only three wins through games. Detroit is more competitive than their record implies and should find ways to win games.

Goaltending has been the Wings' downfall, but it has progressed recently. The Red Wings have had a surprisingly efficient defensive scheme, limiting opponents to 9 or fewer high-danger chances and 27 or fewer scoring chances in six of their last seven games. Goaltending metrics should continue to improve with that defensive efficiency.

Our betting model implies that there is an advantage in backing the Wings tonight, as the market overvalues the Panthers. That makes the Wings +1.5 and moneyline places 2- and 1-star plays respectively. There's also an edge in backing the over, which we rate as a 1-star play.

Dallas Stars vs Chicago Blackhawks

Blackhawks moneyline +136: 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Blackhawks +1.5 (-210): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 5.5 (+100): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

About six games ago, the Chicago Blackhawks appeared to turn a corner on their season. Prior to January 17, the Blackhawks were averaging 7.7 high-danger and 23.9 scoring opportunities. Since then, they are up to 12.5 and 28.7, respectively. Output didn't match immediately, but it did start to catch up as the Hawks have scored 14 over their last four games.

The Dallas Stars are another team that is overachieving relative to their metrics. The Stars' expected goals-for percentage on the season is 51.8%, whereas their actual goals-for percentage is 60.0%. The difference has been unsustainable offensive production, as the team has 33 goals for, compared to the 22.4 expected-goals for. Dallas has managed single-digit high-danger chances in five of seven but has scored three or more goals in four of those games.

PDO's are generally a good indicator of progression/regression. In the Stars' case, they have the second-highest PDO, with their shooting percentage at 14.2% and well above sustainable levels. The Stars will come back down to earth, particularly when we consider their decreased production metrics.

Chicago got the best of the Stars on Sunday with a 2-1 overtime victory. Based on our projections, Tuesday night is also a good time to back the visitors. The Hawks are priced as +136 underdogs, which carries a 42.4% implied probability. With a 43.6% chance of winning, that makes the Hawks moneyline a 1-star play. There's also implied advantages in taking the Hawks +1.5 and under 5.5, both of which are also 1-star plays.