NHL Betting Guide: Monday 2/22/21
Buckle up for a busy week of NHL action, as we are staring down 35 games between now and Friday, and that's not including the 20 games on Saturday and Sunday. We're starting to see overs more regularly with 11 of the past 20 games going over the total -- keep an eye on that after the low-scoring week we had last week.
Here are a few wagers from our daily projections!
Hurricanes moneyline (+112): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Hurricanes +1.5 (-255): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 6.5 (-125): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Carolina Hurricanes are once again underdogs on home ice when they take on the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday night. There are a few metrics which support that the Hurricanes should duplicate the success they had against the Bolts on Saturday night.
From an advanced perspective, the Canes outplayed the Lightning by a substantial margin, posting an expected goals-for percentage of 60.3%. That follows a string of four straight games in which the Hurricanes have objectively outplayed their opponents.
Offense has been the key to the Hurricanes' success, as they've tallied three or more goals in each of their last six games, going 5-1-0 in that span. Output has increased with production, as Carolina is averaging 31.2 scoring chances and 14.0 high-danger opportunities over that six-game sample.
The Lightning had no answer for the Canes on Saturday night, allowing 34 scoring chances, with 14 of those coming from high-danger areas. The same was true in these teams' first meeting of the season when the Canes' managed 13 high-danger chances and 32 scoring chances.
Possession and production metrics have fallen for the Lightning recently, as the team has been out-possessed in four of five, and they've posted below-average scoring chances in three of five and below-average high-danger metrics in four of five.
Although the betting market at FanDuel Sportsbook has the Canes installed as underdogs, our projections support that they should be favored in this one. That means that backing them on the moneyline at +110, and taking them +1.5 are one- and two-star plays, respectively. There's also an edge in taking the under in this one -- we rate it as a one-star play.
Blues moneyline (-178): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Blues -1.5 (+160): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 5.5 (+100): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The St. Louis Blues are on the wrong end of the puck luck spectrum. They have three wins over their last seven games despite putting up an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in six of those seven games.
The Blues save percentage has been a barrier to their success, tumbling to 89.7% over the seven-game span and dropping their season-long save percentage beneath 90.0%. Jordan Binnington is only marginally below his career average but Ville Husso has gotten off to a rough start, posting a 3.74 goals-against average and 87.5% save percentage. Both goalies should improve over the coming games.
Offensively, the Blues remain potent. They are among the league's best in shooting percentage and have scored three or more goals in five of their last six contests. They have dominated possession metrics in eight straight games, which has resulted in 43 or more shots on three occasions.
The Los Angeles Kings may be entering a correction phase, after overachieving offensively. The Kings saw a huge leap in production and output, going from 8.4 high-danger chances per game over their first 10 games to 12.4 opportunities per game over their next 5 games. That brought them from 2.8 goals per game up to 3.6.
However, against the Arizona Coyotes on Saturday night, they managed only four high-danger chances, which tied their lowest mark of the season. That could be the start of a spiral where the Kings work their way back down to average.
One trend worth noting -- the Kings have gone over the total in five of seven games, while the Blues have worked their way over in 11 of 18 this season. That aligns with our projections, which rates the over 5.5 as a one-star play.
Our projections give the Blues a 70.9% chance of winning tonight. Compared to the -178 price at FanDuel Sportsbook, that leaves an advantage in backing the Blues on the moneyline and to cover the -1.5 puckline, both of which are rated as two-star plays.