NHL Betting Guide: Saturday 2/27/21
We get a full-day of NHL action on Saturday with games starting at 11 am EST, and going late into the night. There are four afternoon contests and 10 games slated for the evening. With that kind of action on tap, there's no time to waste.
Here are a couple of plays from our daily projections!
Wild moneyline (-166): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
We are going back to the Minnesota Wild well after it paid off Friday night. From an advanced perspective, the Wild dominated.
The Wild aren't a possession-heavy team. They have a Corsi percentage below 50.0% and rank 21st in the league in possession metrics. So when they out-possessed the Los Angeles Kings last night, it was only the second time over the last 10 games in which they held the puck for longer than their opponents.
Minnesota was able to use that additional possession to create more chances than usual. The Wild managed 30 shots, 33 scoring chances, and 15 high-danger opportunities.
That offensive dominance was part of the reason why the Kings had fewer chances. LA finagled 17 scoring chances, 7 of which came from high-danger areas, and posted their lowest expected goals-for in their last nine games.
Despite that dominance, the opening number on the Wild for tonight actually dropped compared to last night's offerings. Minnesota opened at -166 on the moneyline but have since been pushed up to -180. Our algorithm gives them a 68.0% chance of winning tonight, which is more than the implied probability of 64.3%. That makes the Wild moneyline wager a two-star play, per our model.
Jets moneyline (+116): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
At the start of the season, Claude Julien got the most out of his Montreal Canadiens players. But at some point along the way, their metrics started to nosedive, and Montreal's brass decided it was time to move on. We knew how good the Habs could be under Julien, and now that he's gone, it might be a reality check for how good they had it.
In Dominique Ducharme's debut as head coach, the Habs put up their second-worst possession metrics of the season, their fewest shots, and tied for their third-fewest scoring chances. And this was against a Winnipeg Jets squad that has a very liberal policy on chances against.
Winnipeg put up their third-highest expected goals-for percentage on the season in that game and just their second clip above 50.0% in 12 games. Possession and production metrics favored the Jets, and the Habs lost for the sixth time in seven contests.
The most damning stat is that the Canadiens twice gave up a two-goal lead and ended the game by allowing five unanswered goals.
Based on our projections, the Jets should be favored in this one, as they have a 53.5% chance of winning. In reconciling where they are priced in the betting market, backing them on the moneyline is a two-star play.