NHL Betting Guide: Friday 3/5/21
Friday night is the stepping-off point for a weekend full of hockey. There are 26 games this weekend, and with six of those coming tonight, that means the best is yet to come.
Here are a few plays from our daily projections!
Coyotes Moneyline (+124): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Over 5.5 (+110): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Arizona has taken a quality over quantity approach to their offensive production. The Coyotes are averaging 23.6 scoring opportunities per game over their last five, but 12.4 of those are from high-danger areas.
That could be trouble for the Wild, who have a hard time limiting opponents on the road. Minnesota has given up double-digit high-danger attempts in six of their last seven road games, which has resulted in 12 high-danger goals against.
Those defensive concerns could be compounded by questionable goaltending, as Cam Talbot has posted a save percentage of 88.0% or worse in three of his last five starts.
This weekend concludes a home-friendly part of the Coyotes' schedule where they will play 11 of 12 games at home. It's also worth noting that four of their last five home games have gone over the total. The Wild are much more well-traveled, as this weekend's set of games will be their eighth and ninth road games over their last 11 contests, with at least six goals in five straight road games.
Based on our projections, the Coyotes should be favored in this one, as they have a 54.4% chance of winning. That makes the +124 moneyline wager a two-star play. Both teams have high-scoring metrics working in their favor, which also aligns with our projections. The over 5.5 is a one-star play.
Bruins Moneyline (-148): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Boston Bruins will be looking to rebound from a tough loss to the Washington Capitals on Wednesday night. In that game, the Bruins posted their fewest number of high-danger chances and second-fewest scoring opportunities so far this season.
The good news is that the Bruins' effort was a steep departure from recent and season norms. In the four games prior, Boston put up 53 opportunities from high-danger areas and 117 scoring chances. That suggests that we should expect increased production from the Bs after their dismal performance on Wednesday.
Defensively, the Bruins remain among the best. That's particularly true on home ice, where opponents haven't managed more than 10 high-danger chances in any game, and their most recent outing was the first time all season that an opponent had more than 28 scoring chances.
We also have to consider how bad the Caps have been on the road this season. As the visitors, Washington averages 27.9 shots, 20.7 scoring chances, and 9.2 high-danger opportunities. All of which are decreases compared to their home metrics, where they average 29.6 shots, 24.2 scoring chances, and 9.6 high-danger opportunities.
The Bruins have a distinct home-ice advantage that isn't reflected in the betting market. In reconciling the betting market at FanDuel Sportsbook with our projections, there is an advantage in backing the Bruins. We rate it as a one-star play.