NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 3/30/21
Games are coming early and often on Tuesday night with five of seven games starting at 7:00 pm ET, and puck drops scheduled for 7:30 pm and 8:00 pm in the other two. We're highlighting a couple of live dogs in today's edition of the NHL Betting Guide.
Here are a few plays from our daily projections!
New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals
Rangers Moneyline (+100): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The New York Rangers have been on an offensive tear recently, and it just so happens that it coincides with the return of Artemi Panarin. Since the star forward returned to action on March 13, the Rangers have scored at least three goals in seven of the nine games. The Rangers are averaging 4.3 goals per game during that span and are scoring on 15.5% of their shots.
The Rangers' offensive efficiency will make it hard on Ilya Samsonov, who has struggled on the road this season. Granted, Samsonov is 5-0-1, but his 2.77 goals-against average and 90.2% save percentage both imply that he's been bailed out by the Washington Capitals' offense. On average, Washington scores 4.3 goals per game when Samsonov starts on the road, making up for his lackluster stats.
There's also a big disconnect between the Capitals' output and production metrics over their recent sample of road games. Over their last four road games, the Capitals have managed 22 cumulative high-danger attempts, which works out to be slightly above five per game. Scoring chances are equally abysmal, with the Caps averaging 19.3 over the same sample. This is where metrics don't equate, as output has actually increased despite the dip in production. Washington has scored 19 goals on an 18.6% shooting percentage over those four games. The Caps are beyond unsustainable and are about to hit a big offensive wall.
It was the Rangers who out-possessed the Caps and created more scoring chances when these teams met on Sunday despite playing on the road. With home-ice advantage, the Rangers are the team to beat. That is reflected in our projections, as the Rangers have a modest 50.1% chance of winning.
With how the Rangers are priced in the betting market, that leaves an advantage in backing them on the moneyline. We rate it as a one-star play.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Edmonton Oilers
Oilers +1.5 (-240): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Oilers Moneyline (+106): 1-Star Rating out of 5
After having three games scrapped last week due to COVID-19, the Edmonton Oilers and Montreal Canadiens get down to business Tuesday night in Montreal. The Oilers traveled to Toronto for a two-game set since then, but it will be the Habs' first game since a 5-4 shootout win against the Vancouver Canucks on March 20.
That extended layoff may impact the Habs' competitiveness tonight as they have been out of game action for 10 days with limited practices between then and now.
The Habs' metrics have also been trending in the wrong direction since the coaching change 13 games ago. Not only are the Habs allowing more chances, but opponents have had bigger outbursts, as well.
Opponents have had 12 or more high-danger opportunities in six of the last 13, after having just five such games in the Habs first 19 games of the season under Claude Julien. Scoring chances are also increasing, as opponents have had 30 or more chances in five of the 13 games since Dominique Ducharme took over.
From a production standpoint, the Oilers' metrics have taken a hit recently. Edmonton has had below-average high-danger chances in six of their last seven games and below-average scoring chances in five of seven. A date with the Canadiens will be the remedy they need for their decreased production.
The Bruins were the most recent team to return to action after a Covid-related layoff and they have been unimpressive in their three games back. Don't be surprised if the Habs fall victim to a similar acclimation period.
Edmonton holds the advantage from a metrics perspective and is also coming in fresh. Based on our projections they should be favored tonight, as they have a 53.3% chance of winning. That makes the Oilers moneyline a one-star play and backing them on the puckline a three-star play.
