NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/14/21

The Los Angeles Kings have shown improved offensive metrics lately. Where can we find betting value in their matchup against Vegas?

There are six games scheduled on Wednesday, but only five of those are during primetime hours. The Minnesota Wild and Arizona Coyotes are already underway in Minny for a midweek afternoon contest. A light schedule isn't stopping us from finding value plays on the betting board, though.

Here are a few plays from our daily projections!

Ottawa Senators vs. Winnipeg Jets

Over 6.5 (+100): 1-Star Rating out of 5

The Winnipeg Jets and Ottawa Senators have put up some pretty gaudy offensive numbers over their last few meetings. We're using those metrics to support taking the over when these teams meet again on Wednesday night.

The Jets and Sens have combined for an average of 22.0 high-danger chances and 47.2 scoring chances over their last five meetings at five-on-five. As expected, that has resulted in some high-scoring games with an average of 6.2 goals per game, but only two of the five games have gone over the total. Considering these teams' metrics, we're expecting output to catch up with production and for Tuesday night's contest to see a few more goals.

Recent samples would also indicate that offense should be at the forefront tonight. Across all strengths, the Jets have attempted at least 10 high-danger chances in six straight games and 26 or more scoring chances in four of six. But Winnipeg's defensive zone metrics during that span are cause for concerns. Opponents are averaging 13.5 chances from high-danger areas, and the Jets have out-chanced their opponents in just two of those games.

That could make things easy for a Sens team that is improving their offensive output. Ottawa is scoring 11.6% of their shots over their last six games and has the production numbers to back it up. The Sens are averaging 11.7 high-danger chances 30.2 shots during their six-game sample.

We're expecting goals to be plentiful when the Jets and Sens battle it out tonight, which aligns with our projections. The over 6.5 is rated as a one-star play.

Los Angeles Kings vs. Vegas Golden Knights

Kings +1.5 (-146): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Kings Moneyline (+184): 1-Star Rating out of 5

The Vegas Golden Knights will be playing their fourth game in six nights when they take on the Los Angeles Kings Wednesday night. That could be the difference as the Kings look for their third win over their last five games.

The Kings have had some inspired offensive efforts over their recent set of games. LA is averaging 14.5 high-danger chances per game over their last six contests and has equaled or out-chanced their opponents in five of six. Scoring chances and shots are also up over the sample and sit at 29.8 and 32.2, respectively. The output doesn't match, as the Kings are only scoring on 8.2% of shots, so we should expect the floodgates to open for the Kings over their coming games.

April has been a busy month for the Knights; tonight's contest against the Kings will be their eighth game in 14 days and part of a 17-game month. Vegas' offense has been cooling off this month, as they have scored two or fewer goals in four of the seven games, scoring on 5.4% of their shots or worse in those games. The Knights are likely in a correction phase after overachieving in five of their previous seven games. They have mustered 55 scoring chances and 19 high-danger attempts over their last two games, and they could be entering an offensive drought period.

The Kings have improved offensive metrics, and the Golden Knights are trending downwards. These teams have split the last two-game sets, and based on our projections, tonight is a good night to back that trend to continue. Taking the Kings on the moneyline is a one-star play, and taking them to cover +1.5 is a two-star wager.