NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/27/21
There are eight games to choose from today on the betting board at FanDuel Sportsbook, all of which feature teams from the East and Central Divisions. We've identified a few favorable spots to enter the market, per our daily projections.
Here are some of today's wagers!
Penguins moneyline (-116): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 5.5 (-115): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Pittsburgh Penguins appear to be trending back up after a four-game spell in which they saw a decrease in their offensive production metrics. We're anticipating that the upward trend continues and the Penguins improve on their dominant performance against the Boston Bruins from Sunday.
In that game, the Pens put up an expected goals-for percentage of 61.0% at five-on-five. Pittsburgh out-chanced the Bruins 30-13 in scoring chances and 11-2 in high-danger opportunities, while posting a Corsi rating of 54.3%. It was the sixth time over the last seven games in which the Penguins out-possessed their opponents at five-on-five, and also the fourth time over the last five that they put up an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0%. Pittsburgh is playing a good brand of hockey at the right time of year.
We can't say the same thing about the Bruins right now, as Boston has been outplayed in three of their last five. The only games in which the Bruins posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% came against the Buffalo Sabres. The Bruins have been limited to six or fewer high-danger chances and 19 or fewer scoring opportunities in the other three games.
Goaltending has been keeping the Bruins in games, but they are playing above a sustainable level. Boston has posted a five-on-five save percentage of at least 94.7% in six of their last seven games; their cumulative 95.5% save percentage during that span is well above their season average of 92.0%.
The Penguins continue to produce offensively, and the Bruins' goalies are due for some correction to their inflated metrics. Our models project the Pens as 61.7% favorites tonight, but the -116 moneyline price implies that they are mere 53.7% favorites. That leaves an edge in backing the Penguins, which we rate as a two-star play.
This game should make it's way over the total, as the Penguins' offense continues to roll and the Bruins goalies come back down to earth. As such, over 5.5 is a one-star play.
Over 5.5 (+102): 5-Star Rating Out of 5
The Carolina Hurricanes have been one of the more imposing teams in the NHL this season, particularly from an offensive perspective. The Dallas Stars have forced their way back into the playoff race thanks to some impressive offensive metrics. These teams collide tonight in what should be a high-scoring affair.
The Stars are lighting up their opponents to the tune of 13.5 high-danger chances and 28.1 scoring opportunities per game over their last 12. They have created at least 10 high-danger opportunities in 11 of those 12 games and have scored at least one goal from high-danger areas in all 12.
Despite that offensive supremacy, the Stars have scored on 7.7% of shots or fewer in six of those 12 games. The floodgates are going to open for the Stars at some point.
The Canes have had no problems creating chances or scoring goals all season. Carolina ranks fourth in the NHL in expected goals-for but is ninth in actual output, suggesting that there is room for growth, which we could be witnessing over their recent sample.
The Hurricanes have scored three or more goals in six of their last seven despite decreased production metrics. Their shooting percentage has been 11.1% or higher in four of their last seven despite generating more than 10 high-danger chances in just two of seven. However, Carolina's output remains decreased relative to expected values, which means we could continue to see increased output while their metrics balance out.
These teams met yesterday, and there were seven goals scored. Things could get out of hand tonight as play deteriorates on the second night of a back-to-back, with both teams playing their sixth game in nine nights. This aligns with our projections, which rate the over 5.5 as a five-star play.