NHL Betting Guide: Monday 5/10/21
It's hard to believe, but there are only a handful of games left on the NHL schedule. With the exception of the North Division, all the playoff teams are set, and the last few games of the season will be the final push for teams as they fight for home-ice advantage in the playoffs. We're focusing on a couple of North Division battles in today's NHL Betting Guide.
Here are the plays from our daily projections!
Oilers +1.5 (-300): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Under 5.5 (+108): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Montreal Canadiens return home for their final two games of the season after an unsuccessful three-game road trip in which they dropped all three contests by a cumulative 13-5 score. They'll be looking for an improved defensive effort as they try and limit the Edmonton Oilers.
Thankfully, the Canadiens have been much better on home ice over their recent set of games. Montreal has limited opponents to seven or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in four of their last five home games. Scoring chances are also on the low-end of the spectrum, with opponents attempting 16 or fewer in three of five.
Production metrics don't jump significantly across all strengths, either, as the Habs have held opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances and 20 or fewer scoring chances in three of those five games.
Edmonton has also been less effective offensively on the road this season. So far this season, the Oilers rank 20th in scoring chances and 23rd in high-danger chances at five-on-five. Their recent sample doesn't inspire any confidence, either, as the Oilers have been limited to six or fewer high-danger chances in 10 of their last 13 games at five-on-five.
Montreal has a strong under trend at the Bell Centre this season, going over in 9 of 26 games. Their recent trend also points towards low-scoring games, as the Habs have stayed under in six of their last seven at home.
Montreal can clinch a playoff berth with a win tonight, but they have won by more than one goal just twice over their last 12 home games. Our betting model projects tonight's battle as a low-scoring affair, with an advantage in backing the Oilers to cover the +1.5 puckline. Those wagers are rated as two- and three-star plays, respectively.
Jets Moneyline (-180): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Whatever glimmer of postseason hope the Vancouver Canucks are clinging to can mercifully come to an end tonight when they travel to take on the Winnipeg Jets. The Canucks will be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs with a loss or a Canadiens victory.
Vancouver remains one of the worst teams in the league, particularly from an advanced metrics perspective on the road. The Canucks have the worst expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five and across all strengths as the visitors this season.
Their efforts have been subpar over their recent sample, having not outplayed an opponent at five-on-five since dropping a 3-0 loss to the Ottawa Senators on April 22. That has been the only game in which the Canucks have outplayed an opponent since coming back from their COVID-19 hiatus.
The Jets have also struggled recently, winning just one of their last nine games. Despite the outcomes, the Jets have been improving their efforts over their last six games. In that span, they have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in three of the six games. The results should start to go the Jets way with sustained production.
The Canucks are feverishly trying to complete their 56-game schedule and are in the midst of playing six games in nine nights. Tonight's contest marks the first night of a back-to-back, which has been a troublesome spot for the Canucks since they resumed play. Vancouver has dropped both decisions by a combined 11-6 score while posting five-on-five game scores of 29.3% and 39.2%.
According to our projections, there is a substantive advantage in backing the Jets tonight. Winnipeg continues to compete for playoff positioning, while the Canucks' remaining schedule is nothing more than a formality. Backing the Jets to win is a three-star play.