NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 5/13/21

The Kings dropped a 6-0 decision against the Avs last night. What do our projections say about their chances tonight?

This is it, the last day of meaningful regular season hockey. There will be some North Division games to wrap up while the NHL Playoffs get underway, but after tonight, all the playoff matchups will be set, and we can shift our focus to the postseason. But before we get there, we start with another rundown of favorable betting spots on tonight's NHL betting board from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are a few plays from our daily projections!

Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings

Kings +1.5 (+118): 5-Star Rating out of 5
Kings moneyline (+320): 4-Star Rating Out of 5

The Los Angeles Kings can play the role of spoiler and prevent the Colorado Avalanche from claiming the West Division title, along with home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs, with a victory tonight. There's reason to believe that the Kings get things done in Colorado on the second night of the back-to-back.

The Avs started primary goalie Philipp Grubauer last night, saving Jonas Johansson for tonight's contest. Johansson has been ineffective all season. His 89.4% save percentage ranks 75th among all goalies in the NHL this season, and his -5.09 goals saved above average is 53rd. The Avs' goaltending strategy could end up costing them a valuable spot in the standings.

LA was outplayed by a substantial margin last night. Thanks to some unimpressive metrics, they put up an expected goals-for percentage of 18.4% across all strengths. The Kings attempted only 14 scoring chances and three high-danger chances while giving up 43 and 21, respectively. The last time the Kings attempted only three high-danger chances, they responded by attempting 16 in the next game.

They've responded well to bad defensive efforts as well. The last three times, they have given up 37 or more scoring chances and 16 or more high-danger chances; their opponents averaged 21.3 scoring chances and 7.0 high-danger chances in the next game. Look for a bounce-back effort from the Kings tonight.

Seven of the Avs' nine games on the second night of a back-to-back have been decided by one goal. That leaves an advantage in backing the Kings on the puckline, which we rate as a five-star play. There's also an implied advantage in backing the Kings to win outright. Based on our projections, they have a 50.4% chance of winning tonight, which makes backing them to win a four-star play.

St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild

Over 5.5 (-134): 1-Star Rating out of 5

High-scoring games and the Minnesota Wild go together like peanut butter and jelly. We're expecting that trend to get back on track with a high-scoring affair tonight against the St. Louis Blues after a 4-0 Blue victory last night.

Minnesota has gone over the total in 8 of their last 10, thanks to increased offensive output and less effective goaltending. The Wild's offensive output goes back even further, as they have scored three or more goals in 13 of their last 15 games. Over that span, the Wild are averaging 3.9 goals per game and are scoring on 14.3% of their shots.

The Blues have also lacked consistency in net over their recent sample. Opponents have scored four goals against the Blues in four of their last eight games. Jordan Binnington is partly responsible for the poor showings, as he's posted a save percentage below 90.0% in 6 of his last 11 starts while allowing three or more goals in 7 of 11.

Take note of this trend -- the Wild have gone over on the second night of a back-to-back in four straight scenarios, with an average of 8.0 goals per game.

These teams' high-scoring trends align with our projections, which rate the over as a one-star play.