NHL Betting Guide: Friday 5/28/21
It doesn't get much more exciting than this! Game 7. A berth in the second round on the line. The Colorado Avalanche are waiting patiently to figure out which one of the Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild will face them. Although there isn't an implied advantage in taking a side, our projections do show an edge on the total in tonight's game.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Minnesota Wild
Over 5.5 (+128): 1-Star Rating out of 5
From an advanced metrics perspective, the Golden Knights hold a distinct advantage in this series. Vegas continues to outplay the Wild at five-on-five, with those metrics jumping even further across all strengths. They've been stymied by Cam Talbot so far this series, but Talbot's metrics bubble has inflated to the point where bursting is unavoidable. We're expecting that to happen tonight.
Talbot has stolen two of three games in Vegas so far this series thanks to a 95.5% save percentage. That is a 3.8% increase in save percentage relative to Talbot's away splits this season and a 1.8% increase over his career playoff average. Talbot has stopped 92.0% of shots from high-danger areas on the road so far, which is well above the 80.6% high-danger save percentage that Wild goalies established during the regular season. These goaltending metrics are above sustainable levels and should be expected to come back down to average.
The Golden Knights have put forward some dominating performances at home so far this series. Vegas is averaging 36.7 shots, 32.7 scoring chances, and 12.0 high-danger chances per game at the T-Mobile. There is a disconnect between the Golden Knight production and output that is due for correction.
Minnesota's offense has come to life with their backs against the wall. After putting up four goals through the first four games of the season, the Wild have scored seven over the last two. Their shooting percentage has jumped to 18.4% during those games, bringing their playoff shooting percentage to 7.1%, which is still below their regular season average of 11.3%. We should continue to see increased output from the Wild.
Teams rely on their strengths in crunch time, and both these teams' strengths are offense. Talbot's goaltending metrics should start to crater with the Knights' offense coming to life, with the Wild's offense continuing to operate efficiently. That should lead to a high-scoring game, which aligns with our projections. The over 5.5 is rated as a one-star play.
