NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 10/20/21
It's been a low-scoring week in the NHL, and that continued on Tuesday, as only four of the 11 games scheduled went over the total. That means that the under has been cashing at a 63.4% rate since Saturday. Favorites were even more profitable on Tuesday, winning seven of 11. There are only two NHL games on the docket for tonight's slate, but we have plays from each one.
Here are the best wagers from our projections.
Bruins (-142): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 5.5 (+100): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Philadelphia Flyers have had a relatively easy start to the season but will face a more sincere challenge from the Boston Bruins on Wednesday. The Flyers opened up the season with a shootout loss to the Vancouver Canucks before knocking off the Seattle Kraken in their second game. Both games came on home ice, and the Flyers underwhelmed in both.
Philadelphia posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% across all strengths in both games. Cumulatively, the Flyers gave up 58 scoring and 26 high-danger chances across the two games, getting out-chanced in terms of quality chances in both games. Philly has struggled to limit two lackluster offensive teams, and they'll be unable to limit a more cohesive Bruins attack.
Boston, however, continues to be highly effective at limiting its opponents' chances. The Bruins allowed a meager four quality chances against the Dallas Stars in their season-opening win on Monday night, which continued their impressive structure from previous seasons.
We've also keyed in on the Flyers as an early-season regression candidate. The Flyers have the second-best shooting percentage despite being outplayed in both games and failing to put together a meaningful amount of chances. Their shooting percentage will fall as output balances with production.
Based on our algorithm, the Bruins have a 59.8% chance of winning tonight. Compared to the -142 price, which carries a 58.7% implied probability, that leaves an edge in backing the visitors. There's also an advantage in taking the under, as the Flyers' offensive metrics potentially balance out against the Bruins' defensive structure. Both wagers are one-star plays.
Golden Knights (-132): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The numberFire model also likes the Vegas Golden Knights as short home favorites against the St. Louis Blues. The Golden Knights are coming off a tough loss to the Los Angeles Kings but project as 57.4% favorites against St. Louis.
The Golden Knights have been outplayed through their first two games, posting negative relative metrics across the board. Vegas has been out-possessed, out-shot, and out-chanced through their first two games but, historically, the Knights have been a tough out at home. That could make for an excellent bounce-back spot for them.
Similarly, the Blues have posted consecutive expected goals-for percentages in back-to-back games but have found ways to eke out wins. The Blues' metrics can go one of two ways; either they have an offensive outburst and their production metrics catch up with their output, or output falters while production remains the same. Based on our projections, we should expect the latter.
The short price on the Knights warrants a play on the home side. We rate the Golden Knights moneyline as a one-star play.