NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 2/17/22
We've got a jam-packed 10-game schedule to sift through in advance of tonight's NHL action. There was an even split on last night's action with two home teams and two visitors winning. Outcomes were evenly split on the totals as well, with two overs and two unders.
These are the plays we're looking at from our daily projections!
Winnipeg Jets vs. Seattle Kraken
Jets (-146): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The Winnipeg Jets are looking to build some momentum off their 6-3 shellacking of the Minnesota Wild. They'll get a chance to do so against an underwhelming Seattle Kraken team that continues to struggle away from home.
The Jets are coming off a couple of strong offensive performances, attempting 10 or more high-danger chances and 24 or more scoring opportunities in each of their past two. They out-chanced their opponents in both games. That's been a common theme for the Jets at home recently, as they've out-chanced their opponents in six of their last eight at the Canada Life Centre, resulting in expected goals-for percentages above 50.0% in five of eight.
The Kraken have struggled away from home this season, posting the fourth-worst points percentage as the visitors. The more immediate concern is the lack of defensive zone coverage they've had over their recent outings.
Opponents have attempted 14 or more high-danger chances in two of their last three, and 24 or more scoring chances in three of four. That's going to make it hard to limit a Jets' offense that is coming off a six-goal performance and remains well off their expected offensive pace.
Based on our projections, the Jets have a 69.4% chance of winning -- well above the implied probability of 59.3% that comes with the -146 moneyline price. As a result, we rate the Jets moneyline wager as a three-star play.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Anaheim Ducks
Ducks (+195): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Ducks +1.5 (-128): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
The Edmonton Oilers host the Anaheim Ducks on the second night of a back-to-back Thursday night amid a three-game winning streak. The Oilers have out-scored their opponents 11-3 over that span, inflating their price in the betting market. However, it appears the betting market is overestimating the Oilers' chances against their division rivals.
The increase in the Oilers output has come without meaningful increases to their production metrics. Edmonton has been limited to nine or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in two of three games. That's unlikely to improve against a Ducks team that has been effective at limiting their opponents' chances over their recent sample.
Anaheim has improved their defensive metrics over their past three outings, limiting the Calgary Flames to seven high-danger and 21 scoring chances last night. We're expecting a similar result against the Oilers tonight; the Ducks are 5-1-0 on the second night of a back-to-back over their past six outings.
According to our projections, the Oilers advantage isn't as pronounced as the betting market implies.
On that basis, we rate backing the Ducks on the moneyline as a three-star play. If nothing else, they should be able to keep it close, and backing them on the puckline is a four-star play.
