NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/12/22
It's a full slate of games on Tuesday, with 14 on the docket. Let's try to find some value in the betting market.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Ottawa Senators vs. Detroit Red Wings
Ottawa Moneyline (+100) 2-Star Rating out of 5
Of the 14 games on the slate tonight, this certainly isn't the most exciting matchup, as it's one that features two teams that will not be going to the playoffs. However, if we have an edge on betting a side in this game, it can be a lot more fun.
The Ottawa Senators are having a disappointing season after some people thought they were heading into the year turning things in the right direction. The hope was that they could at least compete for a playoff spot, but that wasn't the case at all this season. They still have young, promising players and have shown the ability to compete in most games.
The Detroit Red Wings are still in their rebuild phase, as well. They got off to a great start and surprised a lot of people but have since fallen off a lot. Ottawa has performed better than them for a large chunk of the season.
Since the start of 2022, the Senators have edged the Wings in points percentage, .432 to .413. It's not a big edge, but it's also backed up by the underlying metrics. Ottawa's five-on-five expected goals percentage in that timeframe is nearly two percentage points higher than Detroit's.
The Sens have also gotten a huge edge in goaltending over this period, as Detroit's team save percentage is the second worst in the league.
These teams played a home-and-home set two weekends ago, and Ottawa took both games 5-2. Ottawa won the shot-attempt battle significantly in both games and created 4.24 expected goals in the second one. This wasn't some fluke; the Senators thoroughly deserved to win these matchups.
Getting even money on the Senators tonight is a great bet, as you could easily make the case that Ottawa is a better team than Detroit right now. Our model agrees, giving this bet a two-star rating.
Seattle Kraken vs. Calgary Flames
Under 6.0 (-106) 2-Star Rating out of 5
We have a battle between the two teams at the polar ends of the Pacific Division standings. It has been a great year for the Calgary Flames and a not-so-great first season for the Seattle Kraken, but the way they both play could help us hit the under in this game.
The Flames have been one of the best defenses all season long. They play the suffocating Darryl Sutter brand of hockey that led him to two Stanley Cup wins with the Los Angeles Kings. They rank in the top five in most defensive metrics, including expected goals per 60 minutes allowed at five-on-five.
Seattle's shot suppression has not been their issue all season. They are in the top 10 in most of those same metrics that say Calgary is an elite defensive team. Their problem with allowing goals has been in net, but they do have a respectable .911 team save percentage over the last 10 games.
We know that the Flames will make it tough on just about any team to score, and it will be especially tough for the Kraken tonight. They average the second-fewest goals per game, and their underlying shot metrics are in the bottom five in most categories. They also are unlikely to be too dangerous on the power play, ranking as their fourth-worst team with the man advantage.
This game is a rematch of what we saw on Saturday, with the Flames winning that one 4-1. One of those goals came with an empty net, and Calgary only created 12 high-danger chances in that game. If we see this game play out similarly, we can cash this under.
One of Darryl Sutter's most famous sayings is that the NHL is a 3-2 league. Well, we hope he's right tonight because that would mean this bet is a winner.
