NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/26/22
It's the last week of the regular season, and the playoffs are right around the corner. Let's see where we might be able to make some money tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Calgary Flames vs. Nashville Predators
Under 6.5 (-115) 2-Star Rating Out of 5
It's been a pretty solid year for both the Calgary Flames and the Nashville Predators. They were both considered outsiders to make the playoffs before the season, yet Calgary has won the Pacific Division, and Nashville is on the verge of clinching a playoff spot.
Calgary is a Stanley Cup contender largely because of their defensive play. They rank in the top five in nearly every defensive shot metric on a per 60 minute basis, including shot attempts, expected goals, and high-danger chances. This stellar play has led to them allowing the fewest five-on-five goals in the league this season.
Nashville's numbers are not quite as impressive but are still pretty good overall. They are seventh in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes. They also don't generate a ton of offense at even-strength, though, as their 2.33 expected goals per 60 ranks 21st in the league.
The Predators score a large percentage of their goals on the power play, which is the league's sixth-best. They might not be able to as easily against Calgary's fifth-ranked penalty kill tonight. Considering the time of year and stakes for Nashville, refs tend to call less penalties, which could hurt their chances of getting a lot of power play opportunities.
This isn't the type of matchup we usually see get to a 6.5 total. The oddsmakers might be influenced by the uptick in scoring across the league, but this game would normally be lower than this.
These two teams played last week and Nashville won 3-2 in a shootout, which was also the result in the first meeting between the clubs. The under looks like a solid play tonight, and our model agrees, making it a two-star bet tonight.
Seattle Kraken vs. Vancouver Canucks
Under 6.5 (-114) 2-Star Rating Out of 5
We're the boring bettors that will take two unders today, but it's never boring cashing tickets. This is a Pacific Division battle that has almost no bearing on the playoff race, barring a miracle for the Vancouver Canucks. We'll have a good reason to pay attention to this game if we make this wager.
The Canucks' season turned around after their coaching change. Bruce Boudreau went behind the bench, and while he's more known for having high-scoring teams, the Canucks improved a lot defensively under him. They've allowed the sixth-fewest goals per 60 minutes since Boudreau took over.
Their opponents tonight will be the Seattle Kraken. The Kraken are a team where the under is usually where we should lean. Their games generate an average of 5.34 total expected goals, the lowest number for any team in the league.
Vancouver will likely be starting Spencer Martin. It is a downgrade from normal starter Thatcher Demko, but Martin did play well in his appearances earlier this season. If he is an NHL-caliber goaltender, he should be able to handle Seattle, as they are the third-worst scoring offense in the league.
Like in the previous game, these teams don't really look like they should combine for a 6.5 total. We can take advantage of these inflated lines by taking the under in games like this, and this is another good spot to do that. Our model also gives this two stars, so we can feel comfortable making this bet.
