NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 10/13/22
We're back up and rolling now.
There are 10 games on Thursday's slate, which creates a boatload of betting opportunities. Where are the best betting opportunities, per our model? Let's check it out.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres
Under 6.5 (+102) - 3 Stars
This total might be a bit too high.
A year ago, these were two bottom-seven teams in expected goals for (xGF). They just weren't good offenses.
Buffalo has returned a majority of the same roster, but there's a bump in expected offense in Ottawa this season after the team traded for Alex DeBrincat and signed Claude Giroux. This total is still giving a ton of respect to an offense that hasn't taken the ice with those two, and they're not even on the top line at this time.
Our model's lean is to the under here in a vacuum, projecting it to win out 61.1% of the time. However, the +102 odds here are an additional kicker. They imply just a 49.5% chance it happens.
With that value in mind, a three-star (i.e. -- three-unit) wager is recommended here, but I'll stick to one, personally, given we haven't seen the new look Sens yet.
New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers ML (+112) - 2 Stars
I firmly believe the Philadelphia Flyers are the worst team in hockey. I also believe there's value betting on them to win tonight.
Philadelphia doesn't know they're bad yet. After all, there's hope that top prospect Carter Hart gets it together and carries this team far beyond expectations. His -7.00 goals saved above expected (GSAx) last year was atrocious.
Between Joel Farabee, Kevin Hayes, and Travis Konecny, there's enough top-shelf scoring talent that they can compete if Hart isn't actively sabotaging their efforts in net.
New Jersey isn't exactly a juggernaut they'll face in the opener. They're the third-worst team in our power rankings, and Philadelphia is the second-worst. If there's bad on both sides, we might as well take the bad team at home with +112 odds.
Our model projects the Flyers to win this game 57.6% of the time. Given the plus odds, we could do a lot worse given the magic going on inside Philadelphia sports right now.
Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs
Capitals +1.5 (-154) - 4 Stars
Under 7.0 (-130) - 4 Stars
The Maple Leafs suffered a shocking outright loss to the lowly Canadiens last night. Don't assume a rebound here.
Toronto's potential goaltending woes came to fruition as Matt Murray let in four tallies. Ilya Samsonov will get his turn tonight, but it's not exactly encouraging that he lost this job to Murray given what happened last night. The Capitals are a much tougher offense, too.
Washington also dropped their contest last night, but it was to a better Boston squad. Charlie Lindgren will get the call for the Caps, and he's got a chance to win this starting job, too. Darcy Kuemper really struggled last night, and Lindgren is a solid option. He was 21st in GSAx last season (4.76).
Lindgren's presence is leading to value showing on Washington in many facets tonight. Our model thinks they win 48.8% of the time compared to their 37.3% implied odds here. I'd rather back the puckline in case of a sluggish affair that heads to overtime.
Speaking of a sluggish affair, it also expects this game to exceed seven goals 21.3% of the time. The other 78.7% of the time, you're likely to at least get a push on this lofty number. Both the total and puckline are four-star wagers today.
