3 FanDuel Premier League Players to Avoid in Matchweek 6
This article is geared toward FanDuel's main slate, which begins at 10:00 a.m. EST Saturday and features just four matches. The slate is small but does include Manchester City and Everton in seemingly great spots, while Teemu Pukki should have plenty of opportunities to continue his hot start against Burnley. The final match on the slate sees Newcastle United host Brighton, and the Magpies are a +145 favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook, which puts their implied win probability at 40.8%.
We should try to take advantage of the teams -- and players -- who play especially well either home or away, while also looking at oddsmakers' favorites and over/under totals. With some clubs playing midweek matches, DFS players, as always, should check out injury reports and confirmed starting XI's when they become available since some starting XIs may not be as expected.
|Saturday, September 21st|
|Watford at Manchester City|
|Sheffield United at Everton|
|Norwich City at Burnley|
|Brighton at Newcastle|
As with any DFS sport, it is imperative to have your players, especially the high-priced studs, live up to their price tag. When investing in any player, it is important to determine who will likely contribute in FanDuel's emphasized areas (goals, assists, and shots on target). It's also just as crucial not to overspend on players in bad matchups.
Let's take a look at three players across the pitch who should be avoided.
Joelinton, FWD/MID, Newcastle United
FanDuel Price: $17
Joelinton is tied with three other players as the eighth-highest priced player at his position, and he has averaged 13.24 FanDuel points this season, the second-lowest average among all forwards/midfielders priced at or above $16. Joelinton has scored fewer than 10 FanDuel points in four of his five matches, notching his only goal of the season and tallying 34.9 FanDuel points, in Matchweek 3 against Tottenham.
Newcastle are a slight favorite over Brighton, and the match has a 62.4% chance of going under 2.5 goals, per FanDuel Sportsbook. Newcastle have scored just one goal through two home matches, and Joelinton has a 31.3% chance of scoring, the highest odds for any Newcastle player and the third-highest goal-scoring odds in the match.
The Seagulls have conceded the ninth-fewest away goals (4) so far this season but have been stingy defending other parts of their opponent’s attack. They have allowed the seventh-fewest shots (53) and third-fewest shots on target (17) through five matches.
Joelinton has recorded a shot on target in just two of his five starts while totaling six chances created over that span, as he does not provide a safe floor. Joelinton offers a very low floor for someone priced this high, though his goal-scoring odds do keep him on the GPP radar.
Gerard Deulofeu, FWD/MID, Watford
FanDuel Price: $17
Deulofeu is tied with three other players as the eighth-highest priced player at his position, and he has averaged 15.16 FanDuel points this season. Deulofeu has appeared in the starting XI in four of Watford’s first five matches, and he has recorded seven shots in two of those four starts. With a 56.2 point performance in Matchweek 5, Deulofeu may carry some ownership, and as we found out last week playing attackers against Manchester City is viable. Deulofeu, however, has only recorded more than one shot on target in one match this so far this season, while failing to produce a shot on target in two starts.
Manchester City returns to Etihad Stadium after a shocking loss to Norwich City, and they enter Saturday's match as a large favorite over Watford. The match has a 58.7% chance of totaling over 3.5 goals, and the Hornets have a 54.1% chance of scoring while Deulofeu has a 16.9% chance of finding the net.
The Citizens have conceded six goals so far this season while only two have come on their home pitch -- both against The Spurs. Manchester City have allowed the fewest shots (31) and third-fewest shots on target (17) through five matches and Deulofeu will likely have a hard time in the attack. While he does provide some peripherals, a player like Deulofeu should be targeted in a more favorable game script.
Nicolás Otamendi, DEF, Manchester City
FanDuel Price: $18
Otamendi is the top-priced defender on the slate, and he has averaged 13.55 FanDuel points this season, the second-lowest average among all defenders priced at or above $15. Otamendi has scored over his season-long average in two straight matches, but he has failed to record over 16 FanDuel points in any of his four starts this season.
While the clean sheet is definitely in play for Otamendi, the Hornets have a 54.1% chance of scoring at least one goal, a feat they have accomplished in three straight Premier League matches after being held scoreless in matchweeks one and two.
The Citizens should be able to maintain the majority of the possession against Watford which will limit the number of defensive opportunities Otamendi sees, ultimately lowering his floor. The Hornets, also, do not relinquish a large number of defensive actions in all categories as they have allowed the seventh-fewest tackles (85), sixth-fewest interceptions (51), ninth-most clearances (113) and third-most blocked shots (26).
In his four starts this season, Otamendi has tallied more than one tackle, blocked shot or interception just twice and has not topped four clearances this season. Although he does offer a ceiling with his presence in the attack, as the top-priced defender on the slate, Otamendi should be faded.
Ben Fisher is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ben Fisher also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Gvsubrickwall. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.