Bundesliga Betting Guide for Matchday 34
The Bundesliga closes out its campaign with a full nine-match slate on Saturday. It'll be imperative to check starting lineups as several teams have little to play for, which could result in some wonky starting XIs across the league.
FanDuel Sportsbook has odds for each of the games, so let's look at a few of the best bets.
Hoffenheim at Dortmund
Dortmund to win (-135)
Dortmund are clearly the better side here -- by a good distance, too. They have 20 more points than Hoffenheim and are 51 goals better by goal differential. And this match is at Dortmund, though home-field advantage hasn't mattered much without fans.
So why are Dortmund just -135 to win? Well, my guess is it has to do with Hoffenheim having a lot to play for in their battle for a Europa League spot while Dortmund have zilch to play for, which could result in BVB rotating their squad or just generally not being as motivated as Hoffenheim are. That's valid. But I still think there's betting value on the Dortmund side, and the probable BVB lineup is a strong one, with both Jadon Sancho and Erling Haaland in it.
I think oddsmakers are putting too much stock into the motivation levels of each side, opening up value on Dortmund, who should roll here unless they put out a second-string team.
RB Leipzig at Augsburg
RB Leipzig to win (-250)
This is another case of a better side not being a big enough favorite. RB Leipzig are 60 goals better than Augsburg by goal differential, and they have 27 more points.
The motivation levels for each squad can be called into question. Augsburg are safe from relegation, and Leipzig have secured a Champions League spot. Who knows what kind of lineups we'll see from these teams, but the probable Leipzig lineup is pretty close to a first-choice squad.
If Leipzig put out anything close to their best lineup, a line near the -300 range would be appropriate. I'm willing to take on the risk of Leipzig starting a weak lineup at the price of -250 as even a lesser Leipzig XI would be favored over Augsburg's best lineup.
Schalke at Freiburg
Schalke to win (+310) or draw (+290)
If you take a quick look at the table, Freiburg being -125 to win at home versus Schalke makes perfect sense. Freiburg are six points clear of Schalke and 13 goals better by goal differential.
But when you dig into expected goals, things start to look a little better for Schalke. Per FBRef's expected goals model, Freiburg has the third-worst expected goal differential in the Bundesliga at -19.9, compared to Schalke's -14.0 clip.
Even if you want to give Freiburg a boost for being the home side, something that's probably not necessary based on what we've seen across the sport since play resumed, that would put the squads close to even, so Schalke at +310 to win and +290 to draw is appealing. I like Schalke to get something from this game as long as they put out a decent lineup -- which isn't a given since neither squad has anything to play for -- so check lineups when they come out at 8:30 a.m. EST.
