DraftKings Daily Fantasy Soccer Helper for EPL 10/17/20
The Premier League is back after the international break for a three-game slate. The last slate had some crazy results and scorelines, and this week could see more of that. Let's take a look at the games on this slate, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
|Chelsea (-195)||+350||Southampton (+500)|
|Manchester City (-200)||+370||Arsenal (+490)|
|Newcastle (+380)||+300||Manchester United (-145)|
Forwards to Target
Riyad Mahrez ($9,000): Kevin De Bruyne is going to miss this game. That is to Mahrez’s benefit. Mahrez took the second most corner kicks after De Bruyne for Manchester City last season, which adds to his normal value of scoring goals and getting assists. He had 11 goals and nine assists in 33 league appearances in the 2019-20 season. He already has a goal and an assist in two games this season. Manchester City are the biggest favorites on the slate, and they're playing at home against Arsenal. With De Bruyne missing this game and City still being without Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus, Mahrez will be a focal point of the attack. His salary is low for a player on a favored team with his upside, and now his floor is much better due to his set-piece role. Mahrez can be used in any format this week.
Timo Werner ($8,100): Werner has yet to get off the mark in the EPL, which has dropped his salary considerably. We know from his goal-scoring record in Germany that he is one of the best goal scorers in Europe, so we should take advantage of this slight dip in form and roster him at the discount. He leads Chelsea in shots this season with 11, so he has been able to get some chances in his four matches in the Premier League. This week against Southampton, Werner has the best anytime goal scoring odds on the slate. Normally the player with the best scoring odds on a favored team has a salary closer to $10,000, so use this opportunity to save on a player in a good situation.
Callum Wilson ($6,000): The value play at the forward position is Callum Wilson of Newcastle. Wilson joined this offseason from Bournemouth and has hit the ground running with his new club, scoring four goals in four league appearances. Newcastle are underdogs at home against Manchester United, but it’s not like the Red Devils have had a stellar start to the season. They have been miserable defensively in their three league games, conceding 11 goals. Wilson is the Newcastle player most likely to take advantage of United's leaky defense, and he is well worth rostering at this salary in hopes that he can score a goal.
Midfielders to Target
Bruno Fernandes ($10,000): With Kevin De Bruyne out, the top play at midfield becomes clear. Even with Manchester United struggling to start the season, Fernandes has been great for fantasy. He has at least 16.1 DraftKings points in every game this season, and he has scored more than 20 in two out of three games. His value comes from his role on penalties and corners, with two penalty goals and 20 crosses in the three games. Newcastle were the worst possession team in the Premier League last season and are in the bottom five in possession again this season, according to WhoScored.com. Fernandes has the highest floor on the slate and is one of the best cash plays at any position.
James Ward-Prowse ($6,400): Ward-Prowse is a player who appears in this article a lot because he is one of the highest floor players in the Premier League. He had a dud of a performance against West Ham on Matchweek 3, but other than that, he has scored more than 10 DK points in each of his other three matchups. His price has come down a lot due to a perceived tough matchup against Chelsea, but this is still a matchup in which he can thrive. Chelsea allowed the ninth most goals in the league last season despite finishing in fourth place. They conceded three goals in a match against lowly West Brom this year, so their defense is still not a strong point. Ward-Prowse led the Premier League in corners taken last season and is tied for ninth so far in 2020-21. With not many strong options around this salary, take the discount and roster a safe play in JWP, who may have some upside as well with his prowess for scoring free kicks.
Jonjo Shelvey ($4,900): Shelvey is a value at the midfield position. With Matt Ritchie out for Newcastle, Shelvey is Newcastle’s primary set-piece taker. His 14 corner kicks lead the slate and rank fourth overall in the league. Shelvey also likes to shoot from long range, and Manchester United have allowed the second most shots per game. He’s a perfectly fine play at his salary as one of the few players with a floor you can count on at the midfield position.
Defenders to Target
Ben Chilwell ($6,700): Chilwell made his mark in his debut for Chelsea -- scoring a goal, getting an assist and adding 11 crosses. He took over a role on corner kicks, as well, which is something that no other defender on this slate has. Chilwell showed a propensity to get forward while playing for Leicester City, and it looks like that hasn’t changed with his new club. He is listed as questionable, but manager Frank Lampard said that he will be available for this game. If he doesn’t start, Reece James would be a good replacement.
Nathan Aké ($3,800): With defender being a very thin position on this slate, it makes sense to save money. It’s so bad that we are going to have to consider a center-back. Aké already has one goal in his first three games as a Manchester City player, getting a goal versus Leicester. In that game against Leicester, he also had 101 accurate passes. We can expect Man City's center-backs to get lots of passes as they lead the league in possession rate. If Aké can complete a lot of passes and keep a clean sheet, he can get around five points, which may go a long way on this slate. If he is able to get a goal or a few shots, it’s a home run.
Goalkeepers to Target
Kepa Arrizabalaga ($5,600): Kepa looks likely to take back the goalkeeper shirt for Chelsea as Edouard Mendy will not be fit for this match. It’s tough to play any of these high-salary goalkeepers this week, but if you opt to do so, Kepa is the play. Chelsea have the best clean-sheet odds on the slate, and the perception of Kepa being a bad goalkeeper may keep his popularity down. We can take advantage of that and get a keeper who has a good chance of getting a win at a lower roster percentage.
Karl Darlow ($4,100): The top play out of the bottom tier of goalkeepers has to be Karl Darlow. He faces a Manchester United side that have lost two of their three games this season, and United will be without suspended striker Anthony Martial. Darlow has performed well between the sticks for Newcastle, winning twice and keeping one clean sheet. With how Manchester United have struggled, not many people would be shocked if Newcastle were to pull the upset, and a win from a goalkeeper at this salary is really all you need.
Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.