FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 1/27/21
|Aston Villa at Burnley||Aston Villa (-105)||-110||Watkins (+150)|
|Wolves at Chelsea||Chelsea (-165)||-108||Werner (+105)|
|Fulham at Brighton||Brighton (+105)||+114||Maupay (+140)|
|Leicester at Everton||Leicester (+155)||+108||Calvert- Lewin (+150)|
|Sheffield United at Manchester United||Man United (-400)||-150||Fernandes (-110)|
Manchester United are huge -400 favorites at home against Sheffield United, per FanDuel Sportsbook. United are -280 to go over 1.5 goals. Not only is that the best clip on the slate, it's the top mark by a massive margin. I do, however, have some reservations about using multiple United attackers. We have nine other teams to choose from, so the opportunity cost is steep, and my simulations aren't crazy high on Manchester United, giving them only a 16.4% chance to net three goals, which is actually second to Aston Villa (19.2%). But United certainly meet the stacking threshold we're looking for.
United have five players with anytime goal odds of at least +135, so even though they'll be chalk, you have a lot of flexibility to get creative here. With the slate's best goal odds and a slew of set-piece duties, Bruno Fernandes ($23; -110) checks every box and is averaging 31.7 FanDuel points per game for the season. He'll almost surely be the slate's most popular player, though. If you want to stack United, any of Edinson Cavani ($17; -105), Marcus Rashford ($20; -105) and Anthony Martial ($22; +110) are fun stacking options alongside Bruno, or you could pair two of them and fade the Bruno chalk.
Going by expected goal difference, per FBRef, Villa should be a much bigger favorite over Burnley than the -105 line we're getting. Villa are fourth in expected goal difference while Burnley are third-worst. My simulations have Aston Villa scoring three goals a slate-high 19.2% of the time along with a 34.2% chance to score two. Ollie Watkins ($17; +150) has the best goal odds for the Villans while Anwar El Ghazi ($14; +230) and Jack Grealish ($19; +230) also have decent goal odds. El Ghazi and Watkins have taken two pens each in EPL play.
I'm not going to pretend to have much of a clue how Chelsea will do in their first game since firing manager Frank Lampard. It's not an easy matchup versus Wolves, but the Blues are -165 favorites. My simulations give them a 28.6% chance to score two goals and a 26.9% chance to get shut out. That's Chelsea right now. Being right on the Blues could be the key to the slate. Christian Pulisic ($13; +165) and Hakim Ziyech ($14; +230) are quality point-per-dollar picks. Timo Werner ($19; +105) is going to blow up at some point. Maybe the coaching change sparks him.
Sitting 8th in expected goal difference but in 17th in the table, Brighton are this season's unluckiest team, and my sims give them a 29.7% chance to score two goals in their date with Fulham, the third-best mark after United and Villa. Oddsmakers are much higher on them, making Brighton's over 1.5 goals line +122, which implies odds of 45.0%. Neal Maupay ($17; +140) is one of my favorite plays on this slate. He's scored seven times in 14 EPL starts, including one goal in each of his last three starts, and usually gets passed over for others in his salary range.
Lastly, the Everton-Leicester matchup is a fun one, but it's only +108 to have more than 2.5 goals, with Jamie Vardy's absence taking away some of the fantasy appeal. My simulations have these two sides about dead even. On the Everton end, Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($18; +150) has the best goal odds and probably won't be too popular if the masses load up on United's high-salary options. James Maddison ($18; +310) handles a lot of set-piece work for the Foxes and is in fine form, scoring a goal in three straight.
Added time -- The solid goal odds for Chris Wood ($14; +160) keep him on the radar. Burnley have struggled mightily in attack, but they're coming off a huge win at Anfield and are getting an Aston Villa side that have played a more open style this season. ... Ayoze Perez ($16; +270) could be Leicester's number-nine sans Vardy. ... If Werner doesn't start up top for Chelsea, it'll likely be Olivier Giroud ($17; +130) or Tammy Abraham ($21; +115), and either would be worth a look.
Burnley are the lowest possession team on this slate (42.8%), so Villa's Matt Targett ($9) and Matthew Cash ($14) should have plenty of chances to get forward and bomb in crosses. Targett is averaging 13.3 FanDuel points per match for the year and has outings of 16.9 and 20.4 in his past two. In my eyes, he's the best point-per-dollar play at defender.
Alex Telles ($9) has +650 goal odds for United, and that's a stellar number for a defender. It'll likely be either he or Luke Shaw ($11) at left-back, and whichever one gets the nod will offer attacking upside at a modest salary. Shaw usually takes some corners.
Lucas Digne ($13) played 90 minutes last time out for the first time since returning from injury, and he notched an assist. Back up among the highest-salaried defenders, Digne has a role on corners and free kicks, giving him a rare floor/ceiling combination for the position.
Sheffield United's defenders will be extremely busy at Manchester United. I like the idea of punting with either George Baldock ($7) or Jayden Bogle ($8), taking the serviceable floor and saving coin for elsewhere.
Added time -- Similar to the Blades' back line, Wolves' defenders should be very active. Conor Coady ($7) is a low-salary way to get a piece of that. ... The salary keeps slipping for Chelsea's Ben Chilwell ($10). He hasn't done much lately, but he was in great form earlier this year and was a beast last season with Leicester. He'll pop off eventually.
The slate's top win odds (-400) and clean-sheet odds (-122) belong to David de Gea ($14). Sheffield United have 10 goals in 19 EPL matches, although they have tallied 18.4 expected goals. United have four clean sheets across their last eight matches in all competitions. My simulations have the Blades getting shut out a slate-high 46.2% of the time.
Robert Sanchez ($11) owns the second-best clean-sheet chances, according to my simulations, which have Brighton blanking Fulham 45.4% of the time. Oddsmakers have a +140 number on a Brighton clean sheet, which implies 41.7% odds. Sanchez is easy like at his salary.
It feels terrifying to invest in Chelsea right now, but since most people probably share that sentiment, it's not a bad time to bet on the Blues' talent. Chelsea are +112 to keep a clean sheet at home versus Wolves and have -160 win odds, so Edouard Mendy ($13) needs to be on our radar. The injury to Raul Jimenez has left Wolves with only 19.9 expected goals in 19 matches. The Blues sport the EPL's third-best defense by expected goals allowed. My simulations have Wolverhampton failing to score 38.1% of the time, and Mendy probably won't be all that popular.
Added time -- As mentioned earlier, my sims really like Villa, and Emiliano Martínez ($12) is a different way to get exposure to them. He carries respectable +166 odds to keep a clean sheet, and my simulations have Villa recording a shutout 39.9% of the time. ... You can see a path to success for either keeper in the Leicester-Everton matchup. I prefer Jordan Pickford ($8) over Kasper Schmeichel ($10), but I say that with very little conviction.