FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 3/6/21
|Southampton at Sheffield United||Southampton (+105)||+122||Ings (-115)|
|Wolves at Aston Villa||Aston Villa (+140)||+114||Watkins (+190)|
|Leicester at Brighton||Brighton (+155)||+118||Vardy (+120)|
Goals could be few and far between on this slate. No match has implied odds better than 50% to total three-plus goals, per FanDuel Sportsbook, and no team is better than +134 to go over 1.5 goals. We also don't have a team with implied win odds of 50%, so there aren't many -- well, any really -- clear paths to production. All in all, it is a wide open slate, and draft percentages should be spread pretty thin.
The one exception to that will likely be Danny Ings ($21; -115). Ings' anytime goal odds are a slate-best mark, and he'll lead the line for a Southampton side that is the slate's biggest favorite (+105) for their road match with Sheffield United. Ings has eight goals with three assists this season and will be on penalties. Sheffield United have allowed the most expected goals (xG) on this slate, per FBRef. Ings checks several boxes. The downside is that he can be fairly goal-or-nothing at times, will likely be chalky and is in poor form (9.5 total FanDuel points across his past three games). But his goal odds really stand out on this slate.
If you want to fade Ings, which is the way I'm leaning, James Ward-Prowse ($18; +250) is a great pivot, who still gets you exposure to the Saints. JWP carries a better floor than Ings due to his work on corners and free kicks, and floors could be more valuable than usual without many high-upside options on this slate. He's generated eight shot-creating actions over his past three games and has put a shot on goal in four of his last six league outings. While Ings has the much better goal odds, Ward-Prowse has netted five goals of his own this year to go along with five assists.
Elsewhere at the high-end of the position, Jamie Vardy ($21; +120) and Ollie Watkins ($23; +190) are in play. The goal odds are definitely there, and it won't be too hard to find cap room for their lofty salaries. On the negative, both guys will be without key playmaking teammates in Jack Grealish and James Maddison. Vardy -- who is also missing Harvey Barnes -- hasn't put a shot on goal sans Maddison the last two games, and Watkins has only two shots on goal over the past three without Grealish. Watkins, however, has totaled at least 15.3 FanDuel points in two of those games thanks to an assist and five chances created.
The upper mid-range has several players I'm pretty into for this slate -- Anwar El Ghazi ($16; +200), Che Adams ($16; +190), Willian Jose ($16; +260) and Leandro Trossard ($17; +270). El Ghazi should continue to start in place of Grealish, while Adams is a fun pivot from JWP and Ings, who will be the most popular way to get exposure to the Saints. Trossard is averaging 19.5 FanDuel points over his past six EPL outings, and he's done it with only one goal and one assist in that stretch. Jose had double-digit goals domestically in each of his past four seasons with Real Sociedad in Spain.
I also want to mention Sheffield United. Even though they're the biggest underdogs on the slate, the Blades are an attack I want a piece of. Southampton have permitted at least 0.9 xG in 11 of their last 13 games across all competitions, so the matchup is solid. David McGoldrick ($17; +230) and Oliver McBurnie ($14; +230) have best goal odds among the Blades' expected starters.
Added time -- Neal Maupay ($18; +170) continues to carry the highest salary as well as the best goal odds for xG kings Brighton. ... Youri Tielemans ($13; +500) has 26.5 and 16.6 FanDuel points without Maddison the past two outings, taking over a lot of Maddison's corner duties. ... Pedro Neto ($19; +280) is a bet-on-talent play who surely won't be popular at his salary.
The defender pool is as meh as we've seen in a while as the attacking full-back options are very underwhelming. You can definitely think about full-on punting at both defender spots and saving all your coin for attackers. But, as we touched on above, reliable floors will be a tad more important than usual if this slate is as low scoring as oddsmakers think it will be, so there is some incentive to the high-salaried center-backs.
Lewis Dunk ($15), Tyrone Mings ($14), Jannik Vestergaard ($14) and Romain Saiss ($14) are tops in salary at the position and should be good for double-digit FanDuel points. Saiss roams forward some and carries solid goal odds (+650). He's got at least 9.1 FanDuel points in four straight matches. Dunk is typically an aerial threat (+900 to score) and has produced double-digit FanDuel points in each of his last eight outings. Vestergaard is +700 to score and has at least 15.4 FanDuel points in four of his past six games. Mings has posted at least 10.4 FanDuel points in 10 of his last 11 matches.
Jonny ($7) and Ahmed El Mohamady ($9) are go-to value options. Jonny has gone for fewer than 5.2 FanDuel points in four of his five games this season since returning from injury, but he seems to have Wolves' left wing-back spot on lock and is a capable crosser. El Mohamady has started every game for Villa since Matty Cash got hurt, and he's scored 16.0, 12.8 and 12.5 FanDuel points in those contests. He will probably wind up in a lot of lineups.
Added time -- Leicester's Ricardo Pereira ($13) and Timothy Castagne ($12) no longer come at much of a discount but are solid attacking full-backs, although a date at Brighton is a tough matchup. ... Enda Stevens ($8), Dan Burn ($7) and Daniel Amartey ($7) are viable low-salary dart throws who should avoid a complete dud.
This might be the toughest keeper slate of the season. Without any big favorites, the win bonuses could come from anywhere, and you can make a case for all six expected starters.
The outlook of the position somewhat hinges on who starts in goal for Southampton. Fraser Forster ($5) got the nod in their last game while Alex McCarthy ($13) had been starting and is listed as the expected starter. If Forster starts again, he'd likely see a huge draft percentage as a minimum-priced keeper on the side with the best win and clean-sheet (+156) odds. The $5 salary allows you do to pretty much whatever you want with your attackers, especially if you punt at one defender spot. I don't like swallowing chalk at keeper, but I'd make an exception for Forster. McCarthy wouldn't be nearly as enticing at his position-high salary given that he hasn't kept a clean sheet in eight straight appearances.
Aston Villa have the second-best clean-sheet odds (+180), which once again makes Emiliano Martinez ($12) a solid pick. He's averaging 17.0 FanDuel points per game for the season and has kept a clean sheet in three of his last five games.
Kasper Schmeichel ($11) and Robert Sanchez ($9) face one another. Brighton have allowed the third-fewest xG this season, and they hold the third-best clean-sheet odds (+182) on the slate. If you're fading Vardy and the Foxes' short-handed attack, Sanchez makes sense. Schmeichel is +215 to keep a clean sheet, and Brighton have been the dream matchup for goalies this season as the Seagulls create loads of chances but struggle to cash them in (the eighth-most xG but the fifth-fewest goals).
Added time -- Rui Patricio ($8) played very well at Manchester City midweek despite conceding four goals. That's City for ya. He should get save volume at Villa as he's made seven, five and seven saves over his past three. The five-save game came against the lowly attack of Newcastle, so he's a safe bet for a few saves at Villa. Plus, Wolves are +250 to keep a clean sheet, which isn't too awful despite being the second-worst mark on this slate.