FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 3/6/21
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS EPL. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features three matches.
|Saturday, March 6th|
|Southampton at Sheffield United|
|Wolves at Aston Villa|
|Leicester City at Brighton|
Matchweek 27 mirrors Matchweek 25's short slate with the absence of a big-six side. However, Leicester City, who currently sit third on the Premier League table, is in action. Southampton (+105) is the largest favorite on the slate, followed by Aston Villa (+140), and Brighton (+155). Leicester City (+190), Wolves (+220), and Sheffield (+270) round out the slate as underdogs.
From an odds perspective, this is another evenly projected slate. The absence of all big-six sides creates a player pool where Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins ($22) is once again the highest-salaried player. Jamie Vardy ($21) is likely to be popular, while Jack Grealish (lower leg) is listed as a game-time decision but is unlikely to recover in time, further shrinking the top end of the player pool.
With all that in mind, here are two players to consider on this slate -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Oliver Norwood, FWD/MID, Sheffield United
FanDuel Salary: $11
When Southampton is on a slate, the side playing against them is in play. Their struggles on defense have continued for most of the season, and their 19 goals allowed over their last six matches is the worst in the Premier League. Nine of those came in one match, to Manchester United, but even removing that game entirely puts them second-worst in goals conceded over that same span. Sheffield has struggled to score, with just four goals over their last six fixtures, but a meeting with Southampton provides an opportunity to produce.
Norwood has FanDuel point totals of 22.5 and 13.8 over his last two fixtures, with 3 shots, 3 chances created, 4 tackles, and 5 interceptions during that span. His role on free kicks alongside John Fleck ($9) provides him with a decent floor for his salary in this match-up. His goal upside is capped, as he has just one in 59 appearances for Sheffield, but on a short slate lacking in firepower, he can provide value without finding the back of the net.
It's not often the largest underdog on a slate also has a massively advantageous match-up, but that is the case with Norwood and Sheffield this weekend. Consider pairing him with David McGoldrick ($17) to further capitalize on Southampton's struggles.
Pascal Groß, FWD/MID, Brighton
FanDuel Salary: $16
Saturday's clash between Leicester and Brighton is an interesting one for several reasons. On paper, Brighton appears to be struggling, with two draws and two losses over their last four with just two goals scored. However, over that stretch, they have outshot their opposition 76 to 33. Two goals scored on 77 shots is horrific, but they have been the better side in their recent fixtures -- the results just haven't shown it. On the other hand, Leicester currently sits third on the league table but is winless since James Maddison's hip injury, going 0-for-3 since.
Gross has been a consistent producer for Brighton this season through their ups and downs. He has just one match with fewer than 10 FanDuel points over these last seven fixtures, with zero goals and two assists over the stretch. Brighton has done everything but find the back of the net, and Gross has been a large part of that, contributing seven shots and creating eighth chances over his last three appearances.
Brighton is likely to go overlooked despite being slight favorites on Saturday. The public is likely more willing to overlook Leicester's recent struggles than Brighton's. If Brighton can continue to create chances at the same rate they have been, the goals should come. If that happens this weekend against a Leicester side that is likely to be popular, Gross and company will be excellent options for large-field tournaments.