FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 3/13/21
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS EPL. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features three matches.
|Saturday, March 13th|
|West Brom at Crystal Palace|
|Burnley at Everton|
|Manchester City at Fulham|
Matchweek 28 features a single big-six side in Manchester City. City (-290) is the largest favorite on the slate, followed by Everton (-115) and Crystal Palace (+120). West Brom (+260), Burnley (+350), and Fulham (+850) round out the slate as underdogs.
From an odds perspective, this is a classic Manchester City slate, but there are more reasons to entertain a fade on the title frontrunners than first meets the eye. City has been dominant lately, with 15 goals and five wins from their last six fixtures, but Fulham is also in the middle of a fantastic run of form.
Without looking, who has conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League over their last six fixtures? The answer is Fulham, with just two goals conceded despite their fixture list including Liverpool, Tottenham, and Everton. Manchester City also played on Wednesday, defeating Southampton 5 goals to 2, and will enter this weekend on just two days' rest. Fading them is risky but is worth consideration.
With all that in mind, here are two players to consider on this slate -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Mbaye Diagne, FWD/MID, West Brom
FanDuel Salary: $11
West Brom figure to be a completely overlooked side on this slate and for very fair reasons.
They have just two goals in their last six fixtures, the fewest in the Premier League over that stretch, and are winless in their last four away matches. Optimism around their outlook this weekend comes almost entirely from a meeting with a Crystal Palace side that has conceded an average of 1.66 goals per match of their last six.
While Palace did keep Manchester United off the scoresheet, they allowed Tottenham to score four times, Burnley three times, and Leeds twice. This is as good a chance as any for a striker like Diagne -- who has been consistently shooting -- to find the back of the net.
Over his last five fixtures, Diagne has a combined 14 shots, 4 on goals, 1 goal, and 2 chances created. Following his January arrival on loan from Galatasaray, Diagne has been a consistent starter for West Brom, starting every match since February and playing at least 83 minutes in all but one of them.
At a low salary of just $11, he fits in alongside lineups that stack Manchester City's stars.
Chris Wood, FWD/MID, Burnley
FanDuel Salary: $17
Saturday's clash between Everton and Burnley is an interesting one. Everton are home favorites and projected for a bounce back after their three-game winning streak was derailed by a loss to Chelsea on Monday.
However, except for their two-goal win over an out-of-form Liverpool, their other victories during that streak were far from convincing. Burnley is winless in their last five, with one-goal draws against Leicester and Arsenal in their two most recent fixtures.
Betting on an Everton bounce back will likely be the more popular play this weekend, as they are considered as an alternative to the extremely popular Manchester City. However, Burnley's recent results against two sides that are equally as good as Everton suggest that they have a decent shot of playing spoiler here.
Chris Wood is coming off a (lucky) goal against Arsenal, and he now has FanDuel point performances of 32.6, 18.9 in his last two matches. He is now fully recovered from a hamstring injury that forced him to miss almost all of February, and at his salary of $17, he should go almost completely overlooked in favor of the other players in his salary range, such as Phil Foden ($17), Gabriel Jesus ($18) and Wilfried Zaha ($18). Wood is always a threat for a goal and is best considered when he figures to be an afterthought due to other options on a slate, and that is certainly the case this weekend.