FanDuel Soccer: Champions League DFS Helper for 3/17/21
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Atletico Madrid at Chelsea||Chelsea (+125)||+138||Suarez (+175)|
|Lazio at Bayern Munich||Bayern (-300)||-270||Lewandowski (-330)|
Much like Tuesday's UCL DFS slate revolved around Manchester City, Wednesday's centers on Bayern Munich. The holders are -300 favorites at home against Lazio, a side they beat 4-1 in Rome in the first leg. You're going to want exposure to Bayern, and the vast majority of lineups on this slate will have at least two -- maybe three -- Bayern attackers. The German giants are -350 to score more than 1.5 goals, per FanDuel Sportsbook. They are -104 to score three-plus goals, which is better than any other side's over 1.5 goal odds.
Robert Lewandowski ($24; -330) is going to be the most popular player and could see a draft percentage near 80%. He has by far the best goal odds and offers an out-of-this-world ceiling, totaling 10 multi-goal games this season across all competitions. He has 36 goals across 28 starts in Bundesliga and UCL play and has scored in six straight, netting nine goals in that span. He's a monster.
It is, however, worth thinking about fading Lewa in some lineups. It could backfire, obviously, but he has only six assists this season and can be a little goal-reliant in DFS. He doesn't have the floor of some of the other top DFS producers like a Lionel Messi or Kevin De Bruyne.
Bayern have eight other players with anytime goal odds of at least +200, so you have no shortage of options to either use alongside Lewa or to be able to create a Bayern stack without him. Anyone who starts in an attacking spot for Bayern needs to be on our radar. Serge Gnabry ($20; -110) and Thomas Muller ($19; -110) lead the way in goal odds among the non-Lewandowski players on this slate, and Leroy Sane ($21; +125) and Kingsley Coman ($17; +200) are high-upside picks, as well.
After Bayern, things are pretty open. With everyone likely loading up on Bayern, being right on this slate's non-Bayern attackers will be crucial.
Chelsea are the most appealing side -- listed at +154 to go over 1.5 goals, the second-best clip -- but they're up against a stingy Atletico Madrid defense in a match that is just +138 to go over 1.5 goals. Chelsea will also be sans the suspended Jorginho and Mason Mount in addition to the injured Tammy Abraham.
Chelsea's top goal odds belong to Olivier Giroud ($18; +195) and Timo Werner ($21; +195). Giroud should start with Abraham out, and he scored the lone goal in the first leg, when the Blues put an impressive five shots on target in Madrid. Werner may be on penalties with Jorginho banned and could get squeezed out on this slate with his salary putting him among Bayern's top options.
The absences of Mount and Jorginho make Callum Hudson-Odoi ($14; +340), Hakim Ziyech ($16; +320), Kai Havertz ($15; +300) and Christian Pulisic ($13; +270) slightly more enticing, depending on how Thomas Tuchel chooses to line up the Blues. If Ziyech starts, he could assume Mount's role on corners. Pulisic has solid goal odds but has been a bit-part player since Tuchel took over. I'd guess two of those four players wind up starting.
Among the three non-Bayern sides, two players are tied for the best goal odds -- Ciro Immobile ($18; +175) and Luis Suarez ($19; +175).
Immobile won't be very popular with Bayern expected to roll, but Lazio did generate five shots on target in the first leg. He's got 14 goals and four assists this year and has been the team's first-choice penalty taker. Suarez is very reliant on goals for DFS production (just two assists), but he's scored 18 times in La Liga play and should handle pens. Atleti know they need at least one goal -- and will need three if Chelsea score one -- so they could be more attack-minded than usual depending on how this match plays out. However, they didn't put a shot on goal in the opening leg, and the Blues have been very good defensively under Tuchel.
Added time -- Joao Felix ($17; +260) would benefit from Atletico playing more open. He's totaled seven goals and four assists in just 13 La Liga starts this season. ... Lazio need at least three goals to advance, so they should be aggressive. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic ($12; +400) took two shots, one of which was on target, in the first leg and has recorded six goals with seven assists in Serie A this campaign.
The upside at the position belongs to Bayern's full-backs, Alphonso Davies ($12) and Benjamin Pavard ($11), and both come at modest salaries. Davies will likely spend a lot of time in attacking areas and holds +410 anytime goal odds, which are sublime for a defender. He'll likely be the most popular player at the position. Pavard is enticing, as well, as he's a not-too-shabby (for defenders) +600 to score. Both are great stacking pieces.
On the opposite end of that match, Lazio's defenders should be under siege, giving them high floors. WhoScored projects Lazio to be in a back-three, with Patric ($8), Francesco Acerbi ($14) and Mateo Musacchio ($6) as the center-back trio. I will go for at least one of Patric and Musacchio if they start. The cap relief they offer is very handy on this slate.
Chelsea's Reece James ($12) and Marcos Alonso ($11) are solid options, although if Chelsea score first and play conservatively from there, it could mean less forward runs for their full-backs. Alonso -- who carries +550 goal odds -- has been revitalized under Tuchel and may get some free-kick work with Mount suspended. Ben Chilwell ($10) would be in play if he starts.
Added time -- David Alaba ($10) is +550 to score and usually has freedom to roam forward from his center-back role for Bayern. ... Atletico center-back Stefan Savic ($12) posted 14.3 FanDuel points solely from defensive actions in the first match with Chelsea.
If you have the salary for Manuel Neuer ($13), he has the best win odds by a huge margin, and his +132 clean-sheet odds are also a slate-best clip by a small margin. On the downside, Bayern haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last six matches, a span which includes games against Armenia, Koln and Werder Bremen -- all of whom are in the bottom half of the Bundesliga in goals scored. If you're going with Neuer, you're really banking on the 17 points he would get in a clean-sheet win.
Neuer is reportedly questionable to play due to an illness. If he didn't start, Alexander Nubel ($5) would be hard to pass on at the minimum salary. While the clean-sheet odds would drop a bit if Neuer is out, they'd still be pretty solid, and Bayern would still be an overwhelming favorite.
Chelsea's Edouard Mendy ($10) notched a clean-sheet win in Madrid, and Chelsea's defense has been outstanding under Tuchel, keeping a clean sheet in 10 of 12 matches across all competitions. Mendy's +146 clean-sheet odds are the second-best on the slate. With Atleti not even getting a shot on target at home in the first leg and Mendy listed at an easy-to-like salary, he will probably be the chalk keeper play.
That makes Jan Oblak ($9) super appealing in my eyes. We know the talent is there, and Oblak's +220 clean-sheet odds are decent. For as well as Tuchel has Chelsea playing defensively, the Blues are struggling in attack, scoring 13 times in Tuchel's 12 games. If I use Oblak, I'll pair him with an Atleti attacker in the hopes that Oblak gets a win and I can hit on the goal -- although that strategy isn't a must on a two-game slate.
Added time -- It takes some courage to play Pepe Reina ($7), and it could work out. It wouldn't be shocking to see Bayern put upwards of 10 shots on target. If Reina can make, say, six saves while conceding three goals, he'd generate 10.5 FanDuel points. Of course, Reina surrendering five goals and making two saves is a realistic outcome, as well.